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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Harvey - Forecast Lounge
      #91240 - Wed Aug 10 2011 04:01 PM

This is the forecast lounge for the wave currently (as of 8/10/2011) off of Africa, tracked as 93L.

Based on the overall negative NAO pattern, and long range models, this too is likely to recurve, but it will still be watched over the next week or so.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 19 2011 06:17 PM)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91241 - Wed Aug 10 2011 07:09 PM

93L should track more south.So when it does re-curve it could be more of a problem for the U.S.

Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Aug 10 2011 07:11 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91242 - Wed Aug 10 2011 09:10 PM

The 18Z GFS run tonight gets downright crazy around 300 hours out (total fantasy), with two hurricanes, one off the west coast of Florida and one off the east coast of Florida simultaneously. This happens by the fist system (92L) recurving, getting caught and looping and crossing over Florida into the Gulf while 93L forms and starts to recurve to the East of Florida.

Ultimately general odds still favor a recurve before the US for both systems and most reliable indicators indicate that it will be difficult for anything from the Cape Verde to approach the US enough for landfall for the next few weeks. Although 93L is likely to get further west than 92L. 92L has higher odds for a total fish spinner (no land impacts), whereas 93L less so, and has odds higher that it may affect some islands later on. We won't know more until next week.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91243 - Thu Aug 11 2011 04:53 AM

OMG. That is crazy. I do believe 93L has a much better chance of affecting land.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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delia6667
Registered User


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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91245 - Thu Aug 11 2011 09:10 AM

Mike,

With regards to Invest 92L, I too think it will curve just North of us here in U.S. Virgin Islands. But does not mean I will let my guard down. Been through 18 Hurricanes, including Katrina, so I am most attentive on these Waves paths.

Now, Invest 93L is another story. Not only do I think it will become a Tropical Storm before 92L, but it appears that it will move in more westerly path and when it makes a slight turn to west-northwest, there is a good possiblity it may come visit us here in Virgin Islands.

Any thoughts?

Cordelia
St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands


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MichaelA
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: delia6667]
      #91247 - Thu Aug 11 2011 09:16 AM

With 92L obviously the weaker system this morning (as they appear on sat pics/loops) and the models tending to keep 92L fairly weak, 93L may be the one to really keep an eye on as far as any future impact on land is concerned. It's early so, as we all know, things often will and do change as these systems evolve. Nothing should be ignored.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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doug
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91248 - Thu Aug 11 2011 09:16 AM

You can relax I think as the 6Z run on 8/11 definitely recurves the first one and has the second, more well developed, but poised to follow the same weakness in the ridge. Model guidance seems to be indicating recurvature of both.

--------------------
doug


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metwannabe
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91250 - Thu Aug 11 2011 01:55 PM

If 92L were to develop and become a stronger system then forecast (although not likely) could this allow more ridging in it's wake and push 93L further westward?

Edit: Isn't that what the 12Z GFS tries to do?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


Edited by metwannabe (Thu Aug 11 2011 02:03 PM)


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berrywr
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92L and 93L [Re: MikeC]
      #91251 - Thu Aug 11 2011 03:21 PM

92L which as of this typing is near 15N latitude and 37W longitude is the primary system the GFS is tracking to become deeper and recurve as a trough along the E Coast of the USA deepens. 93L which as of this typing is near 11N and 22W is the system tracking generally west but as a weaker system but in the longterm meets the fate of Emily across the landmasses of Cuba and DR. Data package analyzed is 11/12Z.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Joeyfl
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Re: 92L & 93L [Re: MikeC]
      #91252 - Thu Aug 11 2011 04:24 PM

92l looks most likely to be a fish storm, as troughs moving off east coast should keep it a good distance east. However 93l maybe not be so much of a slam dunk to turn and the ridge may rebuild enough to keep it on a more WNW heading if GFS is right and with this 7-10 days out much can change. Nonetheless things are starting to get active, as enough of the dusty dry air has retreated for these waves/lows to hold together.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 11 2011 11:03 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: 92L & 93L [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91257 - Fri Aug 12 2011 08:33 AM

Quote:

92l looks most likely to be a fish storm, as troughs moving off east coast should keep it a good distance east. However 93l maybe not be so much of a slam dunk to turn and the ridge may rebuild enough to keep it on a more WNW heading if GFS is right and with this 7-10 days out much can change. Nonetheless things are starting to get active, as enough of the dusty dry air has retreated for these waves/lows to hold together.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)




It appears that 93L is taking a more southerly track this morning, but it doesn't appear to be as "healthy" as it did yesterday. As it moves farther westward, we'll see if it maintains its structure and does begin to develop.

EDIT: I took a look at the model runs on the PSU site (FSU still is inaccessible this morning) and they are tending toward bringing 93L into the Caribbean now.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Aug 12 2011 10:15 AM)


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Re: 92L & 93L [Re: MichaelA]
      #91267 - Fri Aug 12 2011 04:06 PM

93L appears to be rather weak and keeping a westrly track and into the Carribean.

For some reasons the models really don't devlop it. Maybe it's a little early climatologically speaking so we're not seeing the really deep storms early like we saw in 2005.

Then again there really was no year like 2005, atmospheric conditions were perfect for big storms to develop.

Let's hope the trend we've seen so far continues. We are 0-5 for hurricanes.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: 92L & 93L [Re: stormtiger]
      #91280 - Sat Aug 13 2011 11:57 AM

93L is just about gone - with no organization and no focal point for the last 12 hours. The system was consumed by a recent SAL outbreak. Chances for development are quite slim.
ED


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: 92L & 93L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91300 - Mon Aug 15 2011 01:47 PM

Quote:

93L is just about gone - with no organization and no focal point for the last 12 hours. The system was consumed by a recent SAL outbreak. Chances for development are quite slim.
ED



93L is firing up today and looking much more viable. Just entering the Caribbean.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91302 - Mon Aug 15 2011 02:16 PM

Yep - its baaack - from the bone dry SAL outbreak. For two days no focal point was evident but there is now. At 15/18Z NHC placed a weak circulation at 13.6N 59.2W with movement to the west at about 20 knots and a pressure of 1010MB. 93L is passing through the Lesser Antilles and Guadeloupe has reported wind gusts to 25 knots. Westerly windshear in the Caribbean Sea is on the decline and with SSTs at 28C, slow development is possible (somewhat limited by the fast forward motion). A west to west northwest track is likely for the next few days.
ED


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doug
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91304 - Mon Aug 15 2011 03:54 PM

Chances should be going up on this system. Convection is more visible on the south of the center and convection is building west and north. It remains to be seen if this activity can consolidate and train in to the center. I think this system has more going for it than Emily did at this same point and location.

--------------------
doug


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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91309 - Mon Aug 15 2011 09:43 PM

On a side note the GFS continues to advertise a significant hurricane in Caribbean at 180 hours. Likely the system exiting Africa.

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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91311 - Tue Aug 16 2011 09:36 AM

I would think that the 180 hour time frame would be the African wave. On another note, it looks like 93L is riding a really strong surge in the Easterlies and at a fairly fast clip. Unless that forward speed slows, nothing will come of it. I am seeing some flare ups in the monsoon trough (formerly the ITCZ) which may or may not break off and develop.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91316 - Tue Aug 16 2011 10:52 AM

The 93L designation is down on the NOAA loops. change in status forthcoming.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91317 - Tue Aug 16 2011 11:04 AM

The sat pics from the University of Hawaii show pretty good convection, but no discernible organization so far this morning.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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