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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Katia Forecast Lounge
      #92021 - Sun Aug 28 2011 12:30 PM

Both 06Z HWRF and GFS show a hurricane south of 20 N and near 50 west at the end of their runs.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2011 09:22 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 92L forecast lounge [Re: doug]
      #92023 - Sun Aug 28 2011 01:23 PM

The 2812Z GFS takes it to about 20N 52W at the 8-day point - which is about the limit of the models usefullness. 92L is a well-formed Invest with plenty of convection and some cyclonic turning so its certainly a possibility. Another one to watch.
ED


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: 92L forecast lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92025 - Sun Aug 28 2011 01:44 PM


The UKMet and Canadian Global's also in line with development of 92L. Other observation is while the EURO develops 92L as well, it seems to be faster with it and places it at about 18N & 55W at 144 hr's, and at about 24N & 70W at 10 days out. Of note, the various EURO "ensembles" which make up the "Operational" run of the EURO seems to be slower in motion. Finally, looking at the GFS earlier runs, the trend for each consectutive run, shows 92L moving further west with each run and with time.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2011 09:25 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 92L forecast lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92028 - Sun Aug 28 2011 02:22 PM

Chances for tropical cyclone development have been increased to 70%.

On the GFS, part of the reason for the additional appearance of a more westward movement with time has to do with the model resolution itself. When you go from the fine resolution model output to the course resolution output beyond 192 hours the storms will often appear to have a more northerly component - but its usually just a byproduct of the course resolution. On the next model run you have 6 more hours of fine resolution output, so the track seems like it is continuing more westward (and in fact, it is). For this reason (and others) I just don't pay much attention to the GFS beyond 192 hours (actually, a lot less than that for those 'other reasons').
Cheers,
ED


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
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Re: 92L forecast lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92034 - Sun Aug 28 2011 08:26 PM

92L as of 8:00pm, now has been up'd to a 100% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. All the while, its farily hard to even get a glimps of it . 18Z GFS run still has it recurving at some point, yet how well a handle it already has on it and the overall dynamics of the steering levels at day 5-6 I do not know. I believe South Florida was "bullseye" for Irene, according to the GFS at day 6 and possibly day 5. Just watch and wait...

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD12 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92044 - Mon Aug 29 2011 08:57 PM

TD12 still fighting windshear that has slowed the development process. Its actually a rather ragged looking TD at the moment, but overall convection is good. The Depression is still moving just about due west and the remnants of old TD10 to the north are weakening and should become a non-player. With the TD slow to develop, a westward track is likely to continue on Tuesday.
ED


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92045 - Tue Aug 30 2011 07:31 AM

Katia has formed, might have Bermuda in the crosshairs. Although a couple of early models start to keep it more westerly.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2011 09:28 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 932
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #92046 - Tue Aug 30 2011 09:34 AM

Katia is definitely looking much more symmetrical this morning. This early on, I'm thinking fish spinner.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #92049 - Tue Aug 30 2011 04:34 PM

I'm looking at the Typhoon headed towards Japan. If it recurves then Katia will follow suit (in 5-10 days) because that will indicate a weaker ridge. If it goes north into Japan and does not recurve then the ridge will be much stronger in 7-10 days and a more westward motion will be indicated...weather is all connected and what happens there will affect downstream

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #92050 - Tue Aug 30 2011 06:03 PM

I think at this point its best to go 50/50 route for now on Katia. I find it somewhat amazing how even some of the TV meteorologist are saying its likely to turn and has better chance of hitting Ireland then the US east coast? We are talking about something 7+ days down the road. I do not see all the models 100% taking this on a sure right hand turn (GFS?). Yes the GFS did very good job with Irene and it may very well with Katia. But with some models showing enough of a break in ridge to north and some showing ridge possibly linking up with ridge moving across the U.S. Its much to soon to say that U.S is out of the woods. Alot of things have to play out including what happens in Gulf which models are not being consistent about yet.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92051 - Tue Aug 30 2011 06:05 PM

Raw odds wise it has about a 45% chance of landfall isomewhere, and 55% chance for recurve today. (Source) For the us chances for landfall are about 23% , and 77% recurve.

From looking at the overall situation though, I have to agree with the odds. Katia will likely stay well north of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday. I find plenty that would keep it north and not so much that wouldn't. And the only land threat with a reasonable odds right now is probably Bermuda or extreme eastern Canada late next week.

The system in the northwest Caribbean is a lot more interesting.



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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92053 - Tue Aug 30 2011 08:11 PM

Nice stats. It's interesting to me that they completely dismiss (as in not even noted) anything below NC, like FL or a crossing to the GOM.

Personal note -- living on the TX Gulf Coast that is comforting on Katia - at this time of year whenever I see a wave developing along that direction I have memories of Rita and Ike.


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saltysenior
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 19
Loc: stuart,fl.
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92057 - Tue Aug 30 2011 09:39 PM

i can not figure out the %'s......why don't they just put out odds.... then vegas can get in the act. i'll bet 4 to 1 its a fish..

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Juanjo
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: saltysenior]
      #92076 - Wed Aug 31 2011 05:43 PM

Long time reader and weather enthusiast. I just wanted to ask the experts what similarities or differences exist in the patterns (not sure where to get this information) when comparing Katia to Andrew. In plain sight, the paths seem similar to this date. I am not wishcasting or anything but we all know what happened when Andrew came to S. Florida and beyond. Something caused the hard left that Andrew did when past Miami's Latitude. I dont believe there is anything in this weeks environment that could cause that except the unknown of the gulf disturbance. I truly wish that Katia is a fish spinner like it is looking at this time.

Thanks.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Juanjo]
      #92077 - Wed Aug 31 2011 06:15 PM

The Atlantic high pressure ridge intensified and made a strong push westward and shoved Andrew westward. Since then the models have improved considerably - and significant model shifts are not as common. Human miscalculation still happens though - Charley was a good example. So far, Katia is behaving as anticipated.
ED


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Juanjo
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92078 - Wed Aug 31 2011 06:47 PM

Thanks Ed. I figured something like that happened. I guess the only wildcard here is 93L no?

JJ


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92087 - Thu Sep 01 2011 09:48 AM

Hello all, what is going on with Katia this morning? The models don't seem as consistent as they did at this time yesterday. Also, as we all know 5 days out is really just 5 days out, but what gave the NHC reason to believe in a westward motion that far out? Are they not confident enough in that pressure system in the east Atlantic that is supposed to provide weakness enough for a re-curve?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #92090 - Thu Sep 01 2011 12:12 PM

I'm not quite sure that I understand the concern, i.e., is it with Katia, the models, or NHC? Regarding Katia, because of southwesterly wind shear and maybe some dry air entrainment (the western portion of the system is weak), I'm not quite sure that the storm ever reached hurricane intensity - but that is what she is listed as and its close enough. The NHC states that they still expect Katia to resume a WNW track and I cannot presume to know what the confidence level is at NHC, however, misjudging a portion of a forecast has little to do with confidence and a lot to do with mis-interpretation. The inconsistency in the models is something that happens - often - which is why they are simply a guide and not a forecast. Speaking of forecasts, the description of this Forum states: " Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling". " , i.e., its a place to tell others what you think is going to happen.

I've given some thought to an earlier post regarding potential impacts from 93L on the track of Katia. Right now 93L is too weak and the storms are too far apart, however if 93L should intensify, the circulation around the new system could put the brakes on the southern limit of the extent of the east coast trough. This might then alter the magnitude of the weakness that Katia would encounter. Its a bit of a stretch and its certainly not a given - its just a thought.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92125 - Fri Sep 02 2011 09:08 AM

A look at today's WV is revealing. 93L is being affected by the ULL on the Tex/LA border, but is generally under a huge upper high that dominates the midwest. If the ULL influence (shear) lessens 93 L will increase in size and some intensity. Right now it dominates the GOM with the exception of the NW portion which is under the influence of the ULL.
Now as for these effects on Katia...it appears that if Katia does not catch the base of the trough over the ATL to about 75W then Katia will not be able to move north but will be blocked by the eastern extent of the high, assuming it builds eastward, which I think the models anticipate. If 93L intensifies to near hurricane strength this could only amplify the strength of that upper high. I think this is why the level of uncertainty in the models is increasing at 96 hours or so.
All of this of course is speculative and based merely on my evaluation of the various visual images produced by satellite images, which is what I do.
I am curious what others may think along these lines.
It is all very interesting, and what keeps me involved in my hobby.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 932
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92128 - Fri Sep 02 2011 10:01 AM

Looking at the latest sat loops, it appears that Katia may be a hurricane again. Is that an eye I see forming near 17.5N; 52.2W?

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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