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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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Maria Becomes a Hurricane Headed for Canada
      #92229 - Sat Sep 10 2011 10:28 AM

Update - Thursday, September 15, 2011 - 5PM
At the the historical peak of hurricane season, Maria has been upgraded to a hurricane, with hurricane watches up for the Eastern portion of Newfoundland in Canada. Particularly, the Avalon Peninsula, Arnolds Cove to Brigus South.


Canadian Hurricane Centre

Update - Wednesday, September 14, 2011 - 9PM
Although still a sheared system, Recon indicates that TS Maria is a little stronger and moving a little faster to the north northeast. In addition to the Tropical Storm Warning, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Bermuda. The center of Maria should pass west of Bermuda late Thursday morning and start a more northeastward movement as the storm becomes post-tropical on Friday.

A tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands may merge with a stronger wave exiting the west coast of Africa tonight. Windshear in that area is still light, so some development of this system is possible in a couple of days.

Another interesting feature is a strong cut-off upper level low that has been moving to the west southwest for the past 24 hours. At 15/00Z the ULL was located at 22N 51W and it should be near 20N 60W by 16/12Z (Friday morning). This low has popped some limited convection near the center from time to time - at the moment its nothing more than an interesting feature to watch.

Update - Wednesday, September 14, 2011 - 530AM
Maria remains a sheared tropical storm located south southwest of Bermuda. Maria is expected to move north and eventually north northeast with no significant change in intensity and become post-tropical near Newfoundland, Canada, by late Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Bermuda.

Beyond Maria, no other immediate activity is likely (at least for a few days).

Update - Monday, September 12, 2011 - 1205AM
Nate moved inland near Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico, on Sunday as a 35-40 knot Tropical Storm and is now a remnant inland low.

Maria is north of Puerto Rico and didn't make much western progress at all Sunday evening under the onslaught of strong southwesterly wind shear. The shear, along with some entrainment of dry air to the west has again significantly disrupted the structure of the tropical cyclone. Center location is difficult but trajectory analysis on cloud particles suggest that the NHC position on Maria is probably close - perhaps a tad further south or perhaps just a center that has become elongated by the shear. With no new data, the intensity was generously maintained. Maria will face a hostile upper air environment for the remainder of the week which makes opportunities for additional intensification rather slim.

Update - Sunday, September 11, 2011 - 1245AM
Just a short update to note that Nate may be weakening again. The pressure at Veracruz has increased quite a bit and the wind is Calm. At Poza Rica de Hidalgo the pressure is also up and the wind is east at 8knots. The wind field must be quite small and decreasing.

Maria on the other hand is still under considerable shear but, at least visually, seems to be getting stronger. Tropical storm force winds are expected to remain well to the northeast of the Islands.

Original Post - Saturday, September 10, 2011 - 1028AM
At the statistical height of the season we still have three storms in progress - barely! Cat I Hurricane Katia in the northern Atlantic is becoming a strong extratropical low pressure system heading toward the northern United Kingdom at a brisk pace. Additional information on this storm is available from the
U.K. Met Office .

Tropical Storm Maria near the northern Leeward Islands is moving northwest and continues to be disrupted by windshear. Its status as a Tropical Storm is likely to change to a Tropical Depression or even an open wave since there is only a suggestion of a weak circulation to the northeast of the northern islands. Gusty winds and heavy showers are likely in the Windward and Leeward Islands today and tonight. Its possible that the system may relocate/reform a center more to the south.

Tropical Storm Nate has finally started a westward movement along/near 20N in the southern Bay of Campeche. On Friday dry air to the northwest made its way into the center of the cyclone and the storm weakened. A large center is now surrounded by convection. While NHC still suggests intensification, the development of this storm has not progressed as anticipated. Since northerly shear and dry air entrainment are still probable, at best, some modest intensification is possible as Nate heads for a Monday landfall in the area north of Veracruz. At 10/15Z the following Watches/Warning were still in effect:



A couple of tropical waves are noted in the central tropical Atlantic and a third wave is about to exit the west African coast.

Guadelopue/Leewards Radar recording for Maria's approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Maria Event Related Links

float14latest.gif stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=14 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Maria
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Maria

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Maria (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Maria (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Maria

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Maria
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Maria -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 15 2011 05:17 PM)

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Re: Tales Of Windshear and Dry Air [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92231 - Sat Sep 10 2011 10:46 AM

As disorganized as Maria is, there is no doubt a swirl visible on satellite with a little supporting convection to it's northeast. Interestingly enough, the southern extension of this mess, had the most significant degree of convection, though I don't see any other point of rotation at any level that might suggest any possible short term reorganization to the south. It almost looks however, that one could make the argument that Maria practically consists of a much broader weak circulation that stretches from the point where NHC initializes her, and extending SSW'ward well south for about 4 degrees. Basically, Maria now has the appearance and motion of a late October tropical wave that is simply having trouble even progressing westward by even the low level flow.

Other than the current 3 aforementioned tropical cyclones, there seems to be some wave or "feature" in the central Caribbean moving briskly westward. Is probably nothing, but is it just me, or does there seem to be a broad lazy cyclonic twist, perhaps in the mid levels?

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Re: Tales Of Windshear and Dry Air [Re: weathernet]
      #92234 - Mon Sep 12 2011 09:58 AM

Since the 5 a.m. Discussion for Maria which commented on the the low level COC being difficult to locate, the last few frames of the RGB would now make it appear that the NHC shift of Maria's direction from WNW back to NW was slightly premature. The apparent low-level center is now noticeably South of the forecast track.

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