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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Dynamic Duo of Cyclones 'Irwin' and 'Jova' Headed for Mexico
      #92273 - Fri Oct 07 2011 08:52 AM

Several weak lows embedded in the ITCZ stretching hundreds of miles WSW from the Western Mexican coastline have rapidly acquired enough intense convection and of sufficient organization for rapid cyclogenesis to have occurred.

Both cyclones appear to have begun a track towards recurvature, making eventual landfall over Western Mexico not far from each other, closely followed, one upon the other. Stormchasers: Book your tickets now. 2 Hurricanes for the Price of One!

Thus, we have Hurricane 'Irwin' (left) and Tropical Storm 'Jova' (right), which is also forecast to become at least a Cat. 1 Hurricane upon landfall over Western Mexico, with a 1 in 3 chance for explosive development into a MAJOR Hurricane before landfall.

( Photo Courtesy University of Hawaii Weather Server @ )

"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina

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Reged: Fri
Posts: 114
Loc: Ohio
Re: Dynamic Duo of Cyclones 'Irwin' and 'Jova' Headed for Mexico [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #92320 - Mon Oct 10 2011 06:31 PM

Jova is certainly looking very dangerous for Mexico, especially the area near Manzanillo, which could be on the right side of the storm as it makes landfall around midnight tomorrow night. The latest satellite pictures shows the eye a little less distinct than earlier, so hopefully the strengthening trend has stopped for now. The NHC still forecasts it to reach Cat 4 intensity later tonight or tomorrow. The only good thing is that Jova is a small storm (hurricane force winds out just 15 miles from the center) so the stretch of coastline that gets destructive winds should be short.

The news is good on Irwin ... it got hammered with shear and took in some dry air and lost most of its convection over the weekend. It's drifting east in the wake of Jova and will pass over the same waters that Jova passed over, and will likely continue to be hit with shear, so it's likely to stay weak if not even become a remnant low. Most of the models turn it to the southeast before reaching the coast, but the GFDL and HWRF models still want to strengthen it and bring it to the coast, so it's something to watch.

Then we've got 99E that has been trying to get it's act together south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. It almost got classified over the weekend (90% chance) but got hit with northeast shear and has been looking less organized (currently 50% chance). If the shear relaxes it could still be a threat, though most of the models don't do much with it.

The East Pac figures to stay active with the 12Z ECMWF developing a strong storm right about where 99E is now in about 7 days, so Mexico is going to be on edge for awhile.

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