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The area currently causing rain around Florida has a 10% chance to develop Fri-Sat weekend near the coast of SC.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 199 (Nicole) , Major: 241 (Ian) Florida - Any: 199 (Nicole) Major: 241 (Ian)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
95L in Gulf of Mexico, LLC & Convection Separated Monday AM
      #92322 - Sat Oct 15 2011 12:04 PM

12:00 PM Update 17 October 2011
Morning visible satellite images show that a tight low level circulation now exists in the south-central Gulf of Mexico, just off the ne tip of the Yucatan. At the present time, most of this vortex is exposed, with the deepest convection and mid-level circulation well off to its east-northeast.

It is not clear if this is a satellite vortex rotating within and around a larger circulation. It is also possible that this vortex does in fact denote the primary center of 95L, and was even present over land, however obscured by clouds at all levels; and it is not yet clear if a new LLC has already formed, or is currently developing, within the deep convection to its east-northeast.

95L is probably right on the line between being classified as a sheared Tropical Cyclone, and not. Recon is scheduled to head in later this afternoon and we should have a much better idea of what is going on then.

Regardless of technicalities, 95L is producing a significant area of moderate to very heavy rain, and pockets of wind to tropical storm force, all primarily within its northeast quadrant. With ground already saturated over much of south Florida, it may only take just a little bit more rain to produce flooding. Accordingly, the National Weather Service has issued Flood Watches that include several counties in the southern portion of the state.

In addition to the potential for flooding, strong pressure gradients have been building, which will likely result in regions of windy conditions even well ahead of 95L.


8:00 AM Update 17 October 2011
There is a short window for tropical or subtropical development from the 95L, but it is slowly moving and forming more northward and will likely start affecting even central Florida (parts of South Florida are already getting rain). Interestingly today should be relatively warm while the rest of the week will be much more wet and cooler until Wednesday or Thursday, but then the temperature drops with lows in the upper 50s in central Florida late this week.

South Florida still will likely see the most rain out of this system, but as a minimal tropical storm there won't be too much to prepare for except making sure your windows are closed during the rain.

11:20 AM Update 16 October 2011
The area being tracked as 95L has become better organized this morning, and based on ground observations the center is located just onshore of Belize, later today it may reform over open water, and thus has a 50% chance for development over the next two days.

Those along the Yucatan and Cuba likely will be affected, and longer range models suggest the possibility of a Tropical Storm forming from this system approaching southwest Florida later this week. Therefore it will be a system worth closely watching. Conditions do not favor any rapid strengthening, but slow gradual strengthening is possible.

Aircraft recon is scheduled to investigate the area tomorrow afternoon.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track

SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Original Update
Some remnants from eastern Pacific TD#12 have crossed over into the northwestern Caribbean, and are gradually becoming better organized. This area is now being tracked as Invest 95L.

A small area of low pressure, late season wave, currently traveling through the central Atlantic is also getting some attention. We will have much more time to watch this feature, should it manage to hold together and eventually come closer to land. Marginal upper-level winds and nearby dry air should tend to keep further development, if any, slow to occur.

Our immediate attention focuses on newly-tagged Invest 95L. This area of low pressure has become more concentrated over the past 24 hours, and deep convection is continuing to blow up near or over the approximate center, which as of this Saturday morning is located roughly in the vicinity of 17.5N 86.5W.

Early model runs have suggested a motion that would take it back over Belize, Gautemala, and/or the Yucatan. However, the system still appears to be gradually pulling away from these. Given that it has just been "tagged," model runs may not be of much assistance until tonight, at the earliest.

Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for further development, particularly if it stays at least mostly offshore, and a Tropical Cyclone could be forming over this weekend.

Given the copious moisture associated with Invest 95L, the greatest concern at the present time is for the potential of dangerous flooding rains to occur over locations in and around the northwest Caribbean.


95L Event Related Links

float19latest.gif stormplotthumb_19.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=19 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 17 2011 12:12 PM)

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Thu
Posts: 942
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Watching the NW Caribbean Invest 95L & Central Atlantic Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #92323 - Sat Oct 15 2011 09:25 PM

A little unusual for a mid-Atlantic disturbance at this time of year. Convection has increased this evening near that one.

Models seem to indicate that 95L will drift over the Yucatan and the southern Bay of Campeche before it merges with an approaching cold front dropping into the Gulf of Mexico in the Tuesday/Wednesday period. I don't see much development with that this PM and shear appears to be rather high in that region.



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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. [Re: cieldumort]
      #92328 - Sun Oct 16 2011 12:49 PM

Winds are northeast in Cancun and southwest at a buoy 130 miles off the coast. A ship in the Yucatan Channel reported 44mph sustained winds a little bit ago. The circulation isn't very tight yet, but there are T.S. force winds on the north side.

We may have a tropical storm sitting just off the coast right now, but the elongated tail to the southwest may make the NHC wait for some more organization to classify it.

Whether we will get a classified system remains to be seen. Any system that does form may not have ample opportunity to get very strong, but either way Florida will be in for a very heavy tropical rain event as a front dives down from the northwest and drags whatever is sitting in the Caribbean northeastward.

Also note, recon tomorrow is directed to 21.0N 86.0W which is over water and east of the Yucatan.

Edited by CDMOrlando (Sun Oct 16 2011 12:54 PM)

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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #92334 - Sun Oct 16 2011 09:29 PM

Added flhurricane recording of cancun radar.

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adam s
Verified CFHC User

Reged: Tue
Posts: 20
Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. [Re: MikeC]
      #92338 - Mon Oct 17 2011 10:10 AM

How strong do you think Invest 95L will get? On radar this morning Invest 95L looks like a tropical depression. Whatever develops will head to Florida due to a strong cold front heading east later in the week.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. [Re: cieldumort]
      #92339 - Mon Oct 17 2011 11:27 AM

The visible of 95L shows what is clearly a low level circulation to the west of the convection, located just north of the Yucatan coast and moving westward parallel to the coast. There is no sign of a circulation in the storm cluster to the NE of this vortex. The picture shows shear over the system from the SW. It is my opinion that development/classification is not going to happen. That will not prevent the heavier weather in the SE GOM from moving across Florida as predicted.


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Weather Master

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. [Re: doug]
      #92341 - Mon Oct 17 2011 11:50 AM

correct.. once the LLC moved into the S GOM late last night... the center then spun off to the SW due to Shear and the flow in the midlevels became more of a trough set up NNE to SW from along the Yucitan NE to S Florida. LLC was on the western side of the trough so its backing now SW. A new LLC but not tropical in nature will develop later today and tonight further up north of 25N.. probably 26-29N and 85W and become to main non-tropical low as it develop and moves across the Big Bend of Florida and up the east coast. This is a set up normally in March when systems develop over the GOM and pull northward.

What's this mean? Wind.. and T-Storms (non lightning event) and rainfall of up to 6 inches.. so flooding will likely happen.. Winds won't be the factor but it will be breezy on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weds a strong cold front will dive south and cool temps to 10-15dg below normal .. highs in the 60s north of I-4 on Thurs,Friday.. low-mid 70s south. Lows 40s north of I-4..50s S florida and along west coast up thru Clearwater.

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