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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
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Weather Guru

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Loc: Ohio
Supertyphoon Bopha Bearing Down on Palau
      #94251 - Sun Dec 02 2012 06:16 AM

An exceptionally low-latitude tropical cyclone formed a few days ago around 2 degrees north latitude, well southwest of Pohnpei. It became a tropical storm around 3 degrees north and a typhoon around 4 degrees north. Now, at 6 degrees north it is a supertyphoon with 130 kt. sustained winds, and is about to pass directly over the small island nation of Palau in about 12 hours.

This is not an area accustomed to major typhoons. From what I've been able to read most of the houses are wood framed with tin roofs. Also from reading a couple blogs it would seem that almost no preparations are being done, which is not surprising since typhoons are so rare down there. It is looking like the most populous island, Koror, may see the worst of the storm as they could be in the right side of the eyewall. Hopefully everyone can get to a safe place but I'm fearing a major disaster could occur.

After Bopha clears Palau it looks like the Philippines are next in line, probably in around 48 to 60 hours. Landfall looks to be in extreme northern Mindanao or the Visayas, probably as about a 115 kt. typhoon. After that it will obviously depend on how much land it crosses how strong it will be leaving the Philippines but it is still progged to be a typhoon as it moves into the South China Sea in about 4 days.

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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Supertyphoon Bopha Bearing Down on Palau [Re: vpbob21]
      #94252 - Sun Dec 02 2012 02:31 PM

Currently at 922mb and 135kts. Very small but impressive core. Only about 4 degrees in diameter, 260 miles across. Center is currently located just SSE of Palau. Center is located near 6.5 North Latitude... very low latitude system.


1257Z December 2,2012

This Dvorak image was taken 2 hours before the image above. Notice the pinhole Eye and large dark gray area surrounding the Eye. Appears to be a Steady State cyclone, no discernible immediate changes to the system. I hope that the Phillipines are making preparations for this Storm. It appears capable of doing extensive damage over a large area.

Edited by danielw (Sun Dec 02 2012 02:50 PM)

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Weather Guru

Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Re: Supertyphoon Bopha Bearing Down on Palau [Re: danielw]
      #94253 - Sun Dec 02 2012 04:50 PM

Looks like Palau may have dodged a huge bullet as Bopha jogged a little to the left as it apporoached, passing about 50 miles south of Koror. The Koror weather service office has recently gusted to 70 mph and the airport 55-60 mph. Bad but not near as bad as it could have been.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Supertyphoon Bopha Bearing Down on Mindanao [Re: vpbob21]
      #94254 - Mon Dec 03 2012 05:52 PM

Looks like landfall vicinity Cateel, Mindanao around 03/2130Z. Current winds sustained at 160mph gusting to 190mph. Super typhoon has a well-defined eye that is 9NM in diameter. Nearest reporting station is Davao about 60NM to the south of the track. Maximum wave height currently at 52 feet.

Weather Conditions at Davao, P.I.


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