Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Its time once again to start the annual guesstimate of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin - and this year its no easy task. The Atlantic has recorded 19 named storms in each of the past three seasons which is an uncommonly high level of tropical cyclone activity. Some indicators, like the expected above normal SSTs in the Atlantic Basin during the upcoming hurricane season, suggest yet another busy season, however other indicators, like climatology after a series of busy seasons and neutral expectations in the Pacific 3.4 region, would support a more normal level of activity. TSR issued its initial outlook for the basin on December 5th, 2012 with a forecast for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, i.e., another rather busy season. Note that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity, but that doesn't mean that it can't happen.
Its been difficult to find a good analog year for the upcoming season and 2001 (15/9/4) is the only one that I can find that vaguely fits the anticipated SST pattern. The year with the best fit for the expected Atlantic temperature pattern is 2006 (9/4/2), so there is quite a large variation between the two analogs. I'll start with an above average seasonal forecast of 13/7/3 and perhaps by early April the murky crystal ball will clear up a little.
You can start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise your forecast as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Rationale for your forecast is strictly optional, i.e., its not required. We'll check back and see how we did at the end of the season.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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SST trends over the past couple of months and projections suggest that 2013 will quickly evolve into an neutral year. SSTs are expected to be above normal in the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea for all but the latter part of the 2013 hurricane season.
The best analog years, 1968 and 2006, hint at a season of below normal activity, however, the warmer than normal SST expectations should increase the activity to more of a normal season. An above normal level of activity no longer seems as likely as it did in January. With those somewhat conflicting considerations, I'll lower my initial forecast for the season to 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes. Other less representative analog years are 1990 and 2001.
CSU will issue their initial numerical forecast on April 10th and TSR will update their initial December outlook on April 5th. You can issue your own guesstimate for the season in this thread anytime between now and the start of the 2013 season on June 1st - and update your numbers as often as you wish.
ED
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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I'm trying to put my 2013 forcast together. Who came close on the 2012 tropical prediction contest we do each year. I may have missed that post. 14/7/2...???
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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See the last post in the "Outlook for 2012" thread in the 2012 Storm Forum for a quick summary of the forecast results for the 2012 season.
ED
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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At this time it appears we will begin the hurricane season in neutral . I believe the SSTs are higher then last year and so I will go with an aggressive year. I believe we will have 16 storms with 8 hurricanes and 4 major.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The latest SST trends and forecasts still suggest a neutral year (on the negative side of neutral in the -0.1 to -0.5 range). These SST projections prompt a new set of analog years as follows:
1996 13/9/6
2001 15/9/4
1981 12/7/3
The tropical Atlantic basin should be a little cooler than last year but still above normal, so I'm going back to my initial thoughts for a slightly above normal season of activity with a forecast of 13/8/3.
The latest forecast issued today from TSR remains unchanged at 15/8/3. CSR issues its numerical forecast for the season on April 10th.
You can enter your own guesstimate for the season (no rational required) until this thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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CSR's initial forecast for the season was released today and projects totals of 18/9/4 - a highly active season.
TWC also issued its forecast for the season today : 16/9/5.
Additional analog years are 1984 and 1949.
ED
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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CSU has also viewed 2004 as an analog year. I also wonder if many storms are expected to generate from the warmer SST in the eastern Atlantic; hence, the high numbers of expected hurricanes.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Wed Apr 10 2013 01:29 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Regarding 2004, I noticed that also, however, from an SST point of view, it doesn't seem to be a very good analog. The NOAA forecast for the remainder of the year expects Neutral conditions with anomalies from -0.1 to -0.5. Here are the actual monthly 3.4 anomalies for 2012 and 2013 (so far) vs. the actual monthly anomalies for 2003 and 2004.
2012
-0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.3
2013
-0.6 -0.7 -0.4
2003
1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
2004
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 08 2013 01:28 AM)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'll go ahead and lay down a random guesstimate of;
17 Named Storms
13 Hurricanes
8 Major Hurricanes
A bit on the high end intensity wise but I have this feeling in my bones for 2013.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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15/8/4 no particular reason
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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For no particular reason: 17/6/4
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Michael
PWS
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beachcrafts
Registered User
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15/7/3 guesstimating.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The latest NOAA SST trends and projections (as of 4/28) still call for neutral conditions in the EASTPAC - in fact just about flat neutral along the 'zero' anomaly line for the remainder of the year. This keeps 2001, 1981 and 1996 as the best analog years - so no change from my earlier outlook for an above average season of activity at 13/8/3, i.e., 13 named storms, of which 8 will be hurricanes of which 3 will be major (Cat III or greater) hurricanes.
The start of the 2013 hurricane season is now less than a month away - which means that you have about 4 weeks (until this thread closes) to throw your seasonal predictions into the annual contest. Join the guesstimates. Remember to use exact numbers rather than a range of numbers - it makes it easier to determine who had the best guess at the end of the season.
ED
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Waldo Florida
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20, 12, 6.....
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Loc: Miami Florida
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Very active season.. 18/9/4
I am expecting at least 3 U.S. hurricane landfalls...of which at least one will be a major hurricane.
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Kigeliakitten
Registered User
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Loc: Florida
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Totally a wild guess:
20/10/5
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Kigeliakitten here and everywhere on the web including Ravelry.
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gsand
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
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14/8/5, no particular reason.
2+weeks to go, everyone stay safe this year...
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Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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What the heck - 19/9/5 - - I don't see a real strong analog to 2004 - Let's keep it that way 
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weatherhead
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Florida
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What the heck, 19/11/4
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Claims Adjuster
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