Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 16/18Z, Invest 93L was located near 14.6N 83.7W or just off the extreme east coast of Honduras/Nicaragua with winds of 20 knots and movement to the west northwest at 15 knots. Central pressure was 1009MB and SSTs were 29C. Although the system may move over land later today, it could eventually emerge in the southern Bay of Campeche and has assigned a Medium chance for additional development into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rains with associated flooding are likely over portions of Central America for the next few days.
ED
(Title changed to reflect current system status.)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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There are a lot of "ifs" that I can see with this system. If it survives while crossing the Yucatan. If it actually enters the Bay of Campeche. If conditions remain favorable for development, etc. Not saying that it can't or won't develop; just that the odds are mostly stacked against it for now.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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TD2 has entered the Bay of Campeche and is starting to fire up new convection near the center. With a 40% chance for additional strengthening, the government of Mexico has issued the following:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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With an increasing probability that TD2 will continue to strengthen and become a tropical storm later today, the following update has been made:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Ts Barry located just to the northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, at 20/04Z and moving to the west at 5kts.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO
ED
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