It may be jumping the gun a bit to start a thread on a system that hasn't yet been classified but if the last few GFS runs come close to verifying we may have quite a dangerous typhoon in the west Pacific in a few days. Invest 95W formed near the Marianas today and pressures are falling steadily there. The system is currently under high wind shear but conditions should become more favorable and the system is expected to consolidate over the next couple days. It is expected to head in the general direction of Okinawa in about 5-6 days, then depending on which model run you believe it could turn north toward southern Japan (GFS 06Z run) or continue west toward Taiwan (GFS 12Z run). Stay tuned.
It took quite a bit longer than expected but we finally got a tropical storm out of this system. Actually a second system (97W) formed a couple hundred miles east of 95W and became the dominant system. For a while the two systems were fujiwaraing (if that's a word) around a center point until 95W got absorbed into the larger system. Now the whole thing has become Tropical Storm Man-Yi and has recurved and is accelerating NNE.
This storm didn't reach the lofty aspirations that the early model runs were showing for it, likely because of its large size (over 400 miles in diameter) but is still going to give much of Japan some rough weather over the next 12-18 hours. Nagoya is already seeing winds of 41 mph gusting to 58 mph and a pressure of 991 mb. It will cross Honshu just west of Tokyo the rest of today and tonight (Mon. AM local time) and likely give a period of 50-60 mph winds (gusts to 80 mph). The JTWC indicates it may still reach minimal typhoon strength before moving inland.
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