cieldumort
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Above: Unnamed Invest (Left), TS Madeline (Center), Hur. Lester (Right)
Hawaii has a lot more nature to look at this week and next, and it's not born on the islands, as at least two tropical cyclones may be heading there, including the strongest of them all, Hurricane Lester.
While Lester may actually have already peaked in intensity, with some objective analysis higher than officially advertised (closer to Cat 3 briefly), only a gradual decrease in intensity is forecast from here, and by the end of next week, Lester may be approaching the Hawaiian islands still a hurricane. In fact, has included mention of some special concerns that they have with regards to Lester's intensity forecast ahead:
Quote:
The hurricane should be in a low-shear, marginal-moisture environment for the next several days, with only gradually decreasing water temperatures expected as Lester moves nearly parallel to the typical eastern Pacific SST gradient. Most of the guidance suggest that Lester's intensity will peak within the next 24 hours, then slowly fall. This is a trickier forecast than it seems because the forecast environmental conditions are reminiscent of those necessary for an annular hurricane, which would likely keep Lester stronger than much of the guidance. At this point, given the recent satellite trends, the official intensity prediction is kept the same as the previous one, a bit higher than the intensity consensus.
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 29 2016 07:00 PM)
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cieldumort
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Above: Visible image of Cat 4 Lester. Credit: Wunderground.com
Lester is now a very textbook looking, symmetrical and virtually annular major hurricane. In what would be an unprecedented event if it verifies, Lester may make a landfall within the island chain a few short days after Hurricane Madeline does. Such an event has never happened before in recorded history.
While "Lower 48" news has understandably been focusing in the tropical depressions near Florida and North Carolina, these two Pacific *Major* hurricanes approaching the aloha state are flying under the radar.
The Hawaiian islands actually are not well suited to handle landfalling tropical cyclones. With high terrain and ground that easily lends to flash flooding and mudslides, Lester has the potential to become a crisis if it follows close to its current forecast.
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cieldumort
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Stork
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Quote:
Lester is now a very textbook looking, symmetrical and virtually annular major hurricane. In what would be an unprecedented event if it verifies, Lester may make a landfall within the island chain a few short days after Hurricane Madeline does. Such an event has never happened before in recorded history.
While "Lower 48" news has understandably been focusing in the tropical depressions near Florida and North Carolina, these two Pacific *Major* hurricanes approaching the aloha state are flying under the radar.
The Hawaiian islands actually are not well suited to handle landfalling tropical cyclones. With high terrain and ground that easily lends to flash flooding and mudslides, Lester has the potential to become a crisis if it follows close to its current forecast.
To echo, and even amplify the above, O'ahu, where Honolulu is, is a place that could suffer a true catastrophe were Lester to go over the island as a hurricane. Honolulu is a densely populated, congested city and everything from building construction to power lines to sewer systems to trees are ill-equipped to handle even a minimal hurricane. The one saving grace is that the ocean gets so deep so quickly that storm surge is less of an issue. But I fear the effect of the wind could be as bad as the flooding and mudslides.
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cieldumort
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Lester primary model plots as of 8/30 1800z
Image credit: K Emanuel, MIT. OFCL is the Official Forecast from
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cieldumort
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Quote:
To echo, and even amplify the above, O'ahu, where Honolulu is, is a place that could suffer a true catastrophe were Lester to go over the island as a hurricane. Honolulu is a densely populated, congested city and everything from building construction to power lines to sewer systems to trees are ill-equipped to handle even a minimal hurricane. The one saving grace is that the ocean gets so deep so quickly that storm surge is less of an issue. But I fear the effect of the wind could be as bad as the flooding and mudslides.
Excellent points, Stork. And I have to echo your echo and also amplify yet more. The mountains will sustain wind speeds up to 30% higher than at the island chain's lowest levels, and throughout nearly all of the islands as it is, lots of the trees are highly susceptible to soaked ground, thus requiring less wind to topple them than usual.
Keeping with our standard of "Hurricanes without the hype!" it is also still important to be perfectly blunt, when appropriate. Folks living in the islands or visiting should be taking all official watches and warnings very seriously, and making every effort to follow hurricane safety protocols that are specific to these islands.
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cieldumort
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Lester re-intensified yesterday, and has remained a powerful annular type hurricane with maximum sustained winds officially of 140MPH, and with unofficial technique estimates running up to 150MPH, or just about a nickle shy of Cat 5.
This morning there are some indications that Lester may be starting to lose his annular character, but such a claim has been made once before. Such is the magic of annular type tropical cyclones; they tend to maintain far longer than expected.
Below: CIMSS ADT CI: 6.6 Vmax: 129.6 MPH
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Stork
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Hardly a day from seeing Madeline-related watches and warnings discontinued as the storm collapsed and dove south, the Big Island is once again under a Hurricane watch, as is Maui County, from Lester. Both due to intensity and track, this seemed likely to be the nervier of these twin threats to the Aloha State, and that does seem to be verifying.
While it has weakened, it is still forecast to be at hurricane strength on closest approach on Saturday, and the 5am HST advisory gives current maximum winds of 105mph, pressure 971mb. It was centered, with a well-defined eye, at 18.4N, 143.7W, 950 miles east of Honolulu and moving west at 14mph. The official track takes it to the northeast of the island chain, but as the 5am discussion cautions, "... it would take only a small leftward shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect the Islands." People in the Hawaiian Islands need to remain vigilant about this storm.
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