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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
99L Lounge
      #97549 - Fri Oct 14 2016 02:59 PM

For the past several days our better and best tropical cyclone genesis models have been going back and forth with development in or around the Caribbean next week. This region is often more favored for development late in the season, and conditions are already starting to appear more favorable.

At present, it does look convincing that something will at least try to get going here, with maybe a feature getting Invest tagged by even later this weekend, and this thread will be updated with the first significant disturbance, if warranted.

It is worth noting that of the 17 US hurricane landfalls since 1900 that occurred after October 15, 12 of them did so on Florida, with the rest on Texas (2), Louisiana (2), and Alabama (1). (Credit: Phil Klotzbach).

Broad low pressure over the southeastern Bahamas has been designated Invest 99L and the title has been updated.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 17 2016 04:08 PM)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Caribbean - Bahamas Potential [Re: cieldumort]
      #97551 - Mon Oct 17 2016 04:05 PM

Troffiness associated with the tail of Hurricane Nicole interacting with an upper level low has developed into a broad area of low pressure centered over the southeast Bahamas, with this feature looking to be the dominant area of concern in the Caribbean - Bahamas region over the next few days.

This area of low pressure is now being tracked as Invest 99L, with NHC giving it a 60% chance of development this week. The current and expected future environment suggests that whatever comes of 99L, it may at least initially have a sloppy subtropical nature.

Early this week net movement is likely nearly stationary to north-northwest, and then most model runs hook this low out to sea later in the week, but not all of them.

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