cieldumort
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Aug 29 2018 2000z
A vigorous wave about to exit westernmost Africa has been showing indications of developing a well-defined area of surface low pressure even prior to hitting the far eastern Atlantic ocean, and increasingly models are locking on to this feature for near-term development. The wave is likely to be assigned an Invest tag by Friday, and odds it may go straight to numbered Tropical Cyclone by Friday night.
Unanimously now, our better global models indicate that this wave may not only become a numbered TC shortly upon hitting the warm waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, but development prior to or while more or less directly over the islands themselves is possible, and thus interests in the Cabo Verdes this weekend and into early next week may want to pay especially close attention.
After passage near or over the islands, models generally recurve this one out to sea - some ramping it up to our first Major of 2018.
Title updated to SIX. Title updated to Florence. Florence is now a Hurricane - Ciel
Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 05 2018 06:56 AM)
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cieldumort
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The vigorous tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure has entered the far eastern Atlantic and is now being tracked as an Invest, 90L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
Invest 90L is very likely to become a tropical cyclone prior to passing west of the Cabo Verde islands, and Tropical Storm conditions are possible. Watches and Warnings may soon be issued even if a TD has not yet formed, given the close proximity to land as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. PTC explained well on Weather.com: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands may want to begin taking weather ready precautions for a blustery and very wet storm, regardless of classification or not.
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cieldumort
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0Z just got even more bullish basin-wide, and also remains the western outlier for both Florence, bringing her very close to the U.S. by Day 10, and what is now just the wave we are keeping an eye on for potential development in the GOM next week. That said, the EURO is a solid model, so this run (and others before) are noteworthy.
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MikeC
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The models for florence, with the exception of the Euro are still showing out to sea. Euro does bring up the chances for a US or Bermuda landfall,.so here's a system to watch for model trends to see if it continues to trend west, or back out to sea over the next several days. Right now the models appear to be trending away from sure bet recurvature. September will be vastly different from last month, that's for sure.
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MikeC
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12 Z Early guidence shifted fairly significantly to the west, so the trend to the west continues today.
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ftlaudbob
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Hi Mike,
If it does indeed move more west,what impact if any would that have on strengthening?
--------------------
Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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MikeC
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This setup would require it to stay weaker to get further west, it looks like the euro went back toward the recurve idea this afternoon, so that may have been a fluke. However, it is getting dangerously close to Bermuda with this run.
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cieldumort
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12z EURO today back to building in High pressure to Florence's north (and potentially other waves or storms behind her), keeping the track locked underneath. A long way out, but if this starts to verify, the eastern seaboard would definitely be at increasing risk at around 10 days out (Sep 12).
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MikeC
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Models for Florence this morning, and west trend continues. This would mean those along the east coast and Bermuda will want to watch this next week if these trends continue.
0Z Euro shows a pretty significant ridge forming as the system moves close the the US, on a direct approach to NC when the run ends.
6Z shows it recurving just east of Bermuda and staying out to sea (missing Canada also), which is a shift back east from yesterday evening's run.
0z Canadian has cat 2 landfall near Morehead City, NC on late Wednesday Sept 12th.
10 day Euro Ensembles show a pretty good spread along the southeast to mid Atlantic approach. Still lots of time to watch this system.
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MikeC
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12Z Model runs on Florence.
12Z : (as FV3 ) recurves out to sea well before Bermuda.
12Z Euro: Even further southwest than 0z, approaching somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Savannah, GA in 10 days., two other systems in the Atlantic as well one over the NE Caribbean, and another east of the Lesser Antilles.
12Z Canadian Cape Cod landfall, after getting very close to NC.
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MikeC
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12Z Euro Ensembles shifted mostly east with most of them out to sea now, not as many showing land, opposite of what the euro operational shows.
That's a good counter to the earlier trend.
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MikeC
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18Z Shifted a bit left, stalls a bit east of Bermuda, but still goes out to sea.
18Z FV3 is something else, gets very close to Bermuda on Sep 15th, then dives southwest to the northern Bahamas on sept 17th, then Due north and ends just south of coastal NC.
These model runs just means Florence is not set in stone for a recurve, and must be watched, however out to sea still remains the most likely scenario withi it.
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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The Atlantic high pressure ridge strength or weakness, position and persistence in 5-7 days will be critical to Florence's unlikely (but still possible) delayed re-curvature next week. Any thoughts appreciated...
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018
Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...Some pretty large differences show up in the model guidance W/R/T synoptic pattern over the and western Atlantic for early next week. The ECM shows more significant dampening out of the mid-upper trough, whilst strengthening the eastern /western Atlantic ridge to a much greater extent through the period. On the other hand, the keeps more of a weakness over the mid Atlantic and SE during this period.
At the surface, this results in a stronger ECM western Atlantic ridge and freshening easterlies, while the solution shows a weak`bubble` ridge over/offshore north and central Florida. As of late, the pattern has favored strong deep layer ridging to the north, and see no reason why this wouldn`t return once again.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
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0z run of ensembles showing 90% recurving ..
However, both the operational and several members - even though recurving, sideswipe a strong Trop Storm/Hur. (even Major) just offshore
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cieldumort
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Half of the 0z Sep 5 runs of the Euro (including the operational) not so sanguine
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MikeC
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Overnight runs for Florence have shown a trend back to the west with a large threat to somewhere along the US East coast so it's one to watch closely over the next week or two.
The 6Z has a SE Mass/Martha's Vineyard, Cape Cod landfall from the south.
06Z F3 keeps it recurving well out to sea starting Monday.
0Z Euro, landfalling in SC major hurricane on the evening of Thursday sep 13th. (Florence goes to Florence, SC?)
0z Recurves it between Berumda and the US, no landfall.
0Z UKMet keeps it straight west most of its run, leading the pack on the west idea.
Euro ensembles have a fair number into the US, however the current movement is more along the northern side.
Florence will need to be watched, but still too early to say if it will impact the US or not.
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cieldumort
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Florence, now much stronger than forecast (a still-intensifying Major as of this reply), is thus unsurprisingly tracking along the farthest right/north of this morning's ensembles. Possible significant changes coming in the next run.
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Joeyfl
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Still several days to watch this incrediable hurricane but I would be watching this very closely on eastern seaboard from Florida to Maine. Models have not handled it well so far with a windshield wiper effect past several model runs, ukmet has been rather consistent on westward bend. Time will tell but I would say odds have increased some for eastern U.S
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cieldumort
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12z coming in and has initialized Florence way, way too weak. Garbage in. Garbage out.
I will be paying more attention to the better initialized models from 12Z to 18Z, and wait for the 06 0z runs of the Euro and its members to buy in more to what they're selling.
12z initialized much better (although still much too weak - but hey, that's RI for you). Sends Florence almost into the east coast as a very solid Cat 3/4, then recurves while still offshore
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