With the HAFS blowing up a Cat 4/5 and the rest of the models generally strong TS to Cat 2 at best, it really looks like a case of the HAFS, and the HAFS nots.
I like using the experimental models for just the reason Mike mentioned above - they can - (keyword, can) sometimes catch on to something that the older models miss, perhaps owing to years of bias forming algos, if nothing else, but from there it takes further analysis to tease out if there really is anything to it. My hunch is that the HAFS is not entirely out to lunch, but remains a 'low probability, high impact' forecast until we have a much better understanding of Dorian's track around Hispaniola. The HAFS takes it around Hispaniola altogether, in fact, so east that it crosses eastern PR, which is a big if.
An edit to the above - the most recent and current recon mission into Dorian is not finding the cyclone in great shape, which heaps a great deal of doubt on the very bullish and northbound forecasts of the HAFS. In fact, if current trends were to continue today, it might be worth paying attention to model runs that take Dorian over or even south of Hispaniola. The eastern Caribbean can be pretty unforgiving.
Quote: 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000 UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.
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