Quote: A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.
The CHC is still about 270 miles wide with there being a high in front of Dorian about when it hits the coast or possibly before which may cause it to go north or (shudder) hold it south so it crosses into the gulf. During this time it possibly strengthens to an H4.
My point (not made as an attack) Anybody trying to guess within 40-50 miles on which part of the coast this storm hits, even with a fairly straight W N/W track is throwing some guess in there. It's too soon to know within that range. Doing so is dangerous because it will keep some people home when they might be better off trying to get a room at a motel 8 somewhere inland.
As of right now most of the Florida Panhandle should have/should be hightailing it North.
Agree nobody knows within 40 to 50 miles of where yet and may not for another day or 2. There are so many different things that can happen it can stall it can speed up and can go right over the model points.
I remember Charlie everyone around Tampa ran to Orlando because it was going to come right up into Tampa bay and they got it worse in Orlando because he turned in down below.
And i was wrong about the ukmet i went only by what i seen posted by a Met no big deal. Good job see what tomorrow brings.
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