Morning Model run summary, either 6z or 0z depending on the model.
Time to get on with the slow:
6z GFS - landfall on Great Abaco in the Bahamas Late Sunday night, Cat 3, over Freeport in the Bahamas Monday Morning, Cat 3/4 landfall in West Palm Beach Early Tuesday Morning, over Lake Okeechobee Tuesday Afternoon, Lakeland by Wednesday Morning Cat 1 (dirty side over W Orlando) , TS Jacksonville by late Thursday Morning. SLOW SLOW SLOW Then rides coast just offshore, finally clear of NC by midday Saturday. A week long experience for the southeast.
6Z legacy GFS, similar, but landfall As a Cat 4 in Vero Beach Tuesday Morning and rides just inland. Cat 2 Hurricane over Jacksonville Wednesday Morning Exits coast near Charleston, SC Midday Thursday and fhen rides just offshore up to Hatteras, NC By Saturday morning.
0z Euro Cat 3 landfall near Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco in the Bahamas Around noontime Sunday, Cat 3/4 over Freeport in the Bahamas around 3am Monday. Cat 4 landfall in West Palm Beach Overnight Monday into Tuesday (near midnight) Lake Okeechobee around 4pm Tuesday Cat 2/3, Cat 1/2 over Orlando Wednesday morning. TS/Cat 1 over Jacksonville Wednesday Evening. Did I mention slow? The rides the coast just inland Finally exits into the Atlantic by Nags Head, NC Saturday afternoon. Then clips cape cod earl Sunday morning. and one more landfall in Maine later Sunday morning. (May not be tropical at that point)
6Z Icon has landfall near Great Abaco as Cat 3/4 Early Sunday Afternoon, then Cat 4 over Miami proper Tuesday Morning, and ends its run over Ft. Myers on Wednesday morning, a cat 1/2 hurricane
6Z HWRF Clips Abaco on the north side, cat 4, Sunday afternoon. Landfall just south of Vero Beach as a cat 4 Tuesday early morning. Cat 3 over Orlando Tuesday afternoon. Ends run just west of Jacksonville Wednesday morning Cat 1.
6Z HMON Much further south than most, Shoots gap between Abaco and Cat islands late Sunday, Cat 4. Misses the other Islands, Landfall Miami, Cat 4/5 Tuesday morning. Cat 1/TS over Orlando By Wednesday Morning. ends run just west of Palatka, Tropical Storm.
0z UKMET, Over the north part of Great Abaco Cat 3 Sunday evening. Landfall near Boca Raton, Cat 3 Late Overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. Near Venice/Beach or Sarasota as it exits into the Gulf Cat2/3 Early Wednesday morning. Ends run regaining strength in the Gulf well of Tampa and south of Tallahaasee.
Rainfall is pegged on the track routes for Florida, Harvey levels of rain in parts.
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