Despite being a Cat 2 this thing is a mess - very elongated, no clear eye, tons of dry air to the south. The ULL is still in front of it which explains the slow motion. It’s was pushed up against that all day yesterday. It’s outflow is trying to get going but there is no defined channel. It has one huge spiral band, I guess the worry is if that can ever wrap around to feed the core things will crank up.
As has been case for most of it trek the small tight core is intact and solid. There is a massive dry line that mirrors the US east coastline with a strong jet pushing E. So it can’t go north and needs to move due west to reach S FL but that darn ULL just doesn’t want to budge. There is huge amount of moisture over FL’s east coast for it to tap into. The 8 AM updates has winds up to 110 but still only 25 miles from the center. TS winds extend out 105 miles so it’s still small.
I guess TS winds on the coast by 8 PM Sunday is possible if it gets organized and the wind field expands. We should getting a better handle on winds once it starts to effect the Bahamas Saturday PM. Given it’s track weather data from the islands will give us a clue on what to expect.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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