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The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.

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Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.

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I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hits the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a really bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets corralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.

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I am going to disagree also. I've rarely felt so little confidence in a forecast, and the fact that the NHC track is a big circle after three days is reflective of that. Dorian is turning west very soon, and will turn north at some point. Where Dorian turns north is a great big question right now. I don't see that being resolved in the next 24 hours.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek

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