Quote: It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.
He has been on target pretty much all day. Any wobbles that have occurred today had no effect on overall track. The models don't care about wobbles anyway... they are looking at grand scale factors. There are handful of factors influencing Dorian movement, a turn to the N has been predicted for nearly 24 hours (shown first in advisor #23). The question has always been WHEN. With each update the NHC has increased this timing, mainly because Dorain is slowing down. At one point he could have gotten over the west coast of FL, now that seems extremely unlikely.
If you watch the animated NHC cone you can see its been east of forecast most of its run. Today it was behaved better but its currently ever so slightly NE of predicted (again). So is this a trend or a wobble? Time will tell.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 367436
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center