Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.
Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.
I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.
Thoughts?
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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