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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 461
Loc: Georgia Tech
Why I Have Doubts About the GFS Model
      Fri Aug 30 2019 09:13 PM

Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.


  • Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
  • Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
  • The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.


I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.

Thoughts?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022

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* Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator Fri Aug 30 2019 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 01 2019 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Sep 01 2019 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge gsand   Sun Sep 01 2019 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Rubber Ducky   Sun Sep 01 2019 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Sun Sep 01 2019 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Londovir   Sun Sep 01 2019 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge chance   Sun Sep 01 2019 07:48 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Steve86   Sun Sep 01 2019 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Sun Sep 01 2019 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Steve86   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge mattrmay   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Psyber   Sun Sep 01 2019 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Sun Sep 01 2019 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Psyber   Sun Sep 01 2019 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 01 2019 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Kraig   Mon Sep 02 2019 05:08 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 02 2019 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 05:58 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 02 2019 07:34 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge M.A.   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 02 2019 11:39 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:54 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge BloodstarModerator   Mon Sep 02 2019 03:58 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge BloodstarModerator   Mon Sep 02 2019 04:07 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 02 2019 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge TheBeach   Mon Sep 02 2019 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 02 2019 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Londovir   Mon Sep 02 2019 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge HurricaneSteph   Mon Sep 02 2019 05:27 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 03 2019 02:17 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 03 2019 08:51 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Mon Sep 02 2019 10:59 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge engicedave   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge engicedave   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Rhino   Mon Sep 02 2019 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Rubber Ducky   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 02 2019 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 02 2019 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 04:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Steve86   Sun Sep 01 2019 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Prospero   Sun Sep 01 2019 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Sun Sep 01 2019 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge scottsvb   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Steve86   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge hurricanetracker   Sun Sep 01 2019 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Sun Sep 01 2019 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 01 2019 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 31 2019 09:33 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 31 2019 12:03 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 31 2019 11:20 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 01 2019 12:31 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Sep 01 2019 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge B.C.Francis   Sun Sep 01 2019 07:48 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge KY Bourbon Maker   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Sep 01 2019 09:39 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge TampaDon   Sun Sep 01 2019 11:54 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Rob Moser   Sun Sep 01 2019 10:19 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 01 2019 01:45 PM
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. * * Why I Have Doubts About the GFS Model BloodstarModerator   Fri Aug 30 2019 09:13 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 31 2019 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Sat Aug 31 2019 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge StormHound   Sat Aug 31 2019 09:48 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge StormHound   Sat Aug 31 2019 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Sat Aug 31 2019 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Sat Aug 31 2019 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge greywolf   Sat Aug 31 2019 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Rubber Ducky   Sat Aug 31 2019 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge craigm   Sat Aug 31 2019 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Cindi   Fri Aug 30 2019 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Psyber   Fri Aug 30 2019 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge gvl, fl   Fri Aug 30 2019 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Aug 30 2019 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Sheeper   Wed Aug 28 2019 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge M.A.   Thu Aug 29 2019 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Prospero   Wed Aug 28 2019 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 28 2019 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 28 2019 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge Prospero   Wed Aug 28 2019 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 27 2019 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Colleen A.Moderator   Wed Aug 28 2019 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 28 2019 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Colleen A.Moderator   Thu Aug 29 2019 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge doug   Wed Aug 28 2019 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MichaelA   Wed Aug 28 2019 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Prospero   Wed Aug 28 2019 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge chance   Wed Aug 28 2019 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Kraig   Wed Aug 28 2019 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 28 2019 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge lunkerhunter   Wed Aug 28 2019 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Doombot!   Thu Aug 29 2019 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge lunkerhunter   Thu Aug 29 2019 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 29 2019 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 29 2019 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Ed G   Thu Aug 29 2019 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge lunkerhunter   Thu Aug 29 2019 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Ed G   Thu Aug 29 2019 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Stork   Thu Aug 29 2019 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 29 2019 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 29 2019 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge TheBeach   Thu Aug 29 2019 01:49 PM
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. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 29 2019 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 29 2019 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 29 2019 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge doug   Thu Aug 29 2019 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MichaelA   Thu Aug 29 2019 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge chance   Thu Aug 29 2019 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Psyber   Fri Aug 30 2019 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 30 2019 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge chance   Fri Aug 30 2019 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 29 2019 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge lunkerhunter   Thu Aug 29 2019 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge lunkerhunter   Thu Aug 29 2019 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 29 2019 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge chance   Thu Aug 29 2019 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Psyber   Thu Aug 29 2019 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge chance   Thu Aug 29 2019 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Colleen A.Moderator   Fri Aug 30 2019 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Doombot!   Fri Aug 30 2019 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Rob Moser   Thu Aug 29 2019 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 29 2019 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge bob3d   Thu Aug 29 2019 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 29 2019 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge kspkap   Thu Aug 29 2019 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge BloodstarModerator   Thu Aug 29 2019 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Aug 29 2019 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 29 2019 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 29 2019 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Kraig   Thu Aug 29 2019 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge B.C.Francis   Thu Aug 29 2019 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 29 2019 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge chance   Wed Aug 28 2019 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 28 2019 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Genesis   Wed Aug 28 2019 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 27 2019 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 27 2019 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 27 2019 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 27 2019 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Tue Aug 27 2019 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 27 2019 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 27 2019 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 24 2019 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Sun Aug 25 2019 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Sun Aug 25 2019 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge doug   Sun Aug 25 2019 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Sun Aug 25 2019 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 25 2019 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 25 2019 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 26 2019 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge doug   Mon Aug 26 2019 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Mon Aug 26 2019 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Kraig   Mon Aug 26 2019 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Mon Aug 26 2019 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Mon Aug 26 2019 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 26 2019 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Robert   Mon Aug 26 2019 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge craigm   Tue Aug 27 2019 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 27 2019 07:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge SC Bill   Tue Aug 27 2019 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 27 2019 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 27 2019 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge SC Bill   Tue Aug 27 2019 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 27 2019 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 27 2019 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Doombot!   Wed Aug 28 2019 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Aug 28 2019 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 28 2019 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 28 2019 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 28 2019 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Owlguin   Wed Aug 28 2019 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Reaper   Wed Aug 28 2019 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Kraig   Wed Aug 28 2019 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 28 2019 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Reef Road Rick   Wed Aug 28 2019 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 28 2019 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 28 2019 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Doombot!   Wed Aug 28 2019 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 28 2019 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Aug 28 2019 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 28 2019 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Mike V   Mon Aug 26 2019 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge Lautermilch   Mon Aug 26 2019 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge Mike V   Sat Aug 24 2019 10:46 AM

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