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Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.

• Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
  
• Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
  
• The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.
  

I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.

Thoughts?

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Dorian just went to H4 from the HH's. At some point, it's going to start barrelling forward just because it can. With the slowing over those waters it's going to get stronger.

I see that NHC has it barely on the land which may make sense given how slow it's going to slow down to. Still, so much uncertainty with the storm hitting basically in a day and a half. Their cone of uncertainly is roughly 150 miles wide and the hurricane is all but there.

WEIRD storm.


Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 09:34 PM)

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