I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down. The fact the minor tweaks made by the ensembles show different tracks like that highlights it even more, especially since a lot differ than the deterministic run.
Bahamas (Grand Bahama and Abaco) in particular are going to get Hard by Dorian.
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