Quote: The models generally moved away from Florida today. Still plenty of time for that to change again. Hopefully it will still show that tomorrow at this time. The GFS spares the Bahamas from the worst. Not that there will be no impact to the Bahamas/Florida, but not a direct hit.
I wouldn't bet on just one set, though especially with the system hauling west right now, a little quicker than the models indicated.
Increase in forward speed late in the forecast period is good news for already rain-soaked areas in Florida. Unfortunately, the shift of track to the east side of the peninsula, near and parallel to the coast from the Cape northward, will prolong Dorian's major hurricane status after the re-curve. 5 am update has Dorian at 125 mph crossing 29N just east of where I live (one block off the Atlantic Ocean in Volusia County) late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Best hope for my area if this pans out will be an eyewall replacement cycle offshore after Dorian gets past the Cape, similar to Matthew's 20-25 miles off the coast that spared coastal Volusia the worst of Matthew in 2016.
Intensity discussion from NHC 5am advisory: Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening.
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