Big shift east overnight to the track forecast. Looking better for FL, especially S FL (Dade / Broward) as we would be on the weak side of a strong, but compact storm moving away from us.
For the Bahamas this is when small wobbles could mean big differences. Dorain still has a small wind field so +/- 20 miles could shift wind speeds by 50 mph in your location. Two good visualization tracking tools below:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap - use this map with the satellite and hurricane layer on, it has the NHC line and you can zoom in to see the eye relative to the forecast and your location. Not sure how good the Miami radar sees far out but there is a radar layer too you can toggle.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ - go here, click on Dorian, a popup window will show a map and the track, you can animate and turn on various layers, I find the water vapor at 2km or the visible (IR at night) at 1km to provide the best picture of the situation.
Currently tracking right down the line. As many learned during Charley a slight turn could be a signal... however these storms do wobble so if he is off course don't panic and try to work out the long term motion.
We just got our first feel of Dorian... a downpour from an outflow channel that got caught in the ULL that is now over Cuba. Via radar I see several pop up style rain storms moving rapidly from east to west heading our way. I assume it will be like this for the next 3 days (thru Tuesday) but with increasing intensity and duration. They will come and go quickly. As Dorian passes we may experience what PR got and got stuck in a long tail of "training" style rain, leading to localized flooding thru Weds.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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