Hi folks - newbie here. Really appreciate the knowledge many of you have, I have learned a lot in just the last week or so. One question (and I hope it is not a dumb question): in looking at the analog storms to Dorian, I couldn't help but notice that all but one (Andrew, I think) took a rather similar path to Dorian...... initially heading NW toward Florida, but then eventually veering to the N/NE, and never making landfall. Is it just a coincidence that Dorian took about the same path, or should we be putting more faith in the analogs as predictors of what may happen? I know that the reason Dorian is now veering to the E/NE is that the high pressure ridge to the north is now breaking up, and I have no idea whether a similar scenario would have happened with most of the analogs, but I'm guessing that is very unlikely. Any thoughts/comments?
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