18z runs in general so far following the trend today of shifting a little bit back west and/or southwest, possibly solely the result of a forecast for a faster forward motion until the turn begins. As Levi Cowen (Tropical Tidbits) and others have pointed out, a mere one mile-per-hour error in forward speed until the turn north begins results in a 72 mile difference if the turn starts in 72 hours (and thus 72 miles closer to the coast - or even inland, if that 1 mph is faster than previously forecast).
Averaged NHC track error for the period 2010-2018 at 72 hours out was about 115 miles. No time to let one's guard down.
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