Quote: I normally don't say anything against our local mets (and, in fact, the last 3 days or so I've been fairly aggressively defending them against general public negativity on social media), but I have to say that I'm a little disappointed at the significant "all clear" sentiments that have been spreading here in west central FL by the local mets. They're already essentially putting out on SM sites that the storm will pass by the coast, and although that's [hopefully/probably] going to happen, I think the general model uncertainty and difficulty in analyzing this storm should be keeping them more guarded with what they're putting out right now.
The 18Z runs were all of a similar mind in nudging the storm westward from prior model runs, with the HWRF going so far as to call a landfall/ingress above the Cape - it shows how uncertain this prediction will be. I'm curious as to whether it could be a result of that missed Gulfstream flight that didn't provide updated data for the more recent runs that is now causing them to use "stale" data (do they input old/stale data for models which use them, or just run them without those parameters?). It seemed like when the original atmosphere data rolled into the models, they began their turn to the right, and now that we missed that one set of samples, the models are lagging back to the left. I feel like we have a serious need for all of the atmospheric data we can get for this storm, as the timing of ridges and troughs will make or break the path for sure.
Time will tell.
Oh there's no all clear. Even if Dorian stays out to see, storm surge and a whole pile of thunderstorms/rain are still coming. 20:00 discussion says up to 12 feet depending on where you are which one heck of a lot of Florida under water if 12 feet actually hit. There are A LOT of places that are under 10 feet in elevation.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 365952
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center