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Regarding the NHC call to hold Dorian at 150/C4 at 11PM - there is ample evidence to support an upgrade, but they mentioned in their discussion some concern that the SFMR readings at the surface could be overdoing it. In addition (and not mentioned in their discussion), some slight impingement can be seen on the western side of the hurricane in the very last few enhanced IR frames, which *could* suggest a possible near-term plateau coming, if that were to continue.

For now, pressures have continued to fall, and data suggest 150MPH sustained at a minimum, which is still an incredibly powerful Major Hurricane and should be taken seriously.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

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Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.

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I would add that 940mb isn't exactly tearing the barometer off the wall for a Cat 5. Wacky storm though so who knows? I will say that I don't remember a storm this size that maintained such a solid defined eyewall for so long.

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