Following up on the above - in general, 01/0z runs of primary global models and hurricane-focused models have nudged back east a little. Something pleasing to look at, but still much too early to bank on with so many subtle variables in play, and several caveats apply - see below -
More 0z Trends As already noted, GFS/GFS-L tugged back right and do not make a Florida landfall, whereas the HWRF inched back right, but still shows landfall along N Central Fl coast
CMC an apparent jump left for Florida landfall, and proceeds inland into Central Fl UKMET tugged back right - center stays offshore of Florida HMON tugged back right - center stays offshore of Florida ICON tugged back right, still makes landfall around Melbourne
01/0z Noteworthy mention: ECMWF doesn't appear to be much change, ultimately, but in the near term, is 'the southwesternmost model through 48 hours' - a change that should be watched closely for verification and any future buy-ins, from itself and/or other models, especially as a track more southwest *could* result in Dorian getting lost down there, cut off from the exit hatch... but for now at least, after heading more southwest, ECMWF resumes Dorian's previous track and the center stays offshore of Florida
01/06 Noteworthy mention: TVCN* CONSENSUS inched back left *Includes GFS-Inerpolated, UKMET-Interpolated, HWRF-Interpolated, NRL COAMPS-Interpolated and the ECMWF Ensemble Mean
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