Quote: It’s a nail biter for sure. The majority of the models coming out on 00Z are showing a westward shift. The GFS looks very close to a landfall in cape Canaveral. It just doesn’t seem like the ridge over Fl held as strongly as it should have. The expansion in the last hour on the west side of the storm is remarkable. It had to have increased by 10+ miles once the ridge over Fl broke.
It's not surprising if it keeps going more west. That high has never looked as strong as the models were giving it if you looked at it on GOES as much as I've watched it. It's always looked a bit like it was churning a bit versus looking like a wall of brick like the highs that usually smack hurricanes north with ease.
We'll know pretty soon though if Dorian is going to overpower the edge and make FLA landfall. Next 8-12 should tighten the landfall cone right up.
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