Quote: Different models are helpful at different times and setups and different storm strengths. It's also very different from storm genesis into establish storms. I generally think the Euro is probably going to be closer to correct, but things like HWRF are in the margin of error and have legit strengths. Since the slowdown is expected once it gets to the west side of Grand Bahamas, little details are going to matter more. Ultimately I don't expect the NHC's track to be that far off.
I don't really like any one of the models, but as a whole they are helpful. Official track all the way for me, the track record is really good.
I have a quote on my office door, that while it wasn't said about hurricanes it is quite appropriate.....ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, BUT SOME ARE HELPFUL!
-------------------- 2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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