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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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Keith B
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 57
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Cut off low, gulf mexico, northwest caribbean, the possible future october and beyond..
      Thu Sep 19 2019 10:54 PM

Cut off low pushing southwest through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, into Northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan.

Getting to time of year to watch this area for development from, waves, to troughs, also pacific crossing storms although rare.

Not expecting anything from this, should die out over land. Expect repeats as troughs dig down, in Fall.

I'm personally expecting the 2nd week of october to start getting extremely active here
> From the above?

It has been eight years since a mature hurricane moved through the area, rina in 2011, only birthed storms since.

So much warm water its spilling out through the bahamas, and fueling the storms in the southwest Atlantic.

With the northwest Bahamas, and adjacent area the area to be this year, with persistent upper trough combo over southeast united states, now in neutral phase of pacific oscilation.
> I have read the info from IRI (International Research Institute and CPC) that we are in a neutral phase. This supports an environment where tropical system will not have El Nino issues.

Personally expecting a major to lay down in the northwestern caribbean this, fall, if not this fall then next year in a neutral-lanina could be a bad year all around in the gulf of mexico.
> Are you saying that a major hurricane could affect the crib and then GOM area? Makes sense, serious hot water for fuel.

Expecting october with another round of MJO to deliver a taste, cuba, keys-southflorida,Bahamas.
> Into October, from previous Advance Skywarn training, that tropical system could affect the above areas. If the MJO and other patterns enhance the ability for development.

Also, what is the attached pic of? I am not understanding what I am seeing.

Thanks,

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/

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* Cut off low, gulf mexico, northwest caribbean, the possible future october and beyond.. Robert Thu Sep 19 2019 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Cut off low, gulf mexico, northwest caribbean, the possible future october and beyond.. IsoFlame   Mon Sep 23 2019 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Cut off low, gulf mexico, northwest caribbean, the possible future october and beyond.. Keith B   Thu Sep 19 2019 10:54 PM

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