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The area near the Yucatan Peninsula (now Invest 99L) has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 338 (Nicholas) , Major: 354 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1408 (Michael) Major: 1408 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Karen Lounge
      Wed Sep 25 2019 05:48 AM

Now that Karen is north of the Caribbean the next key phase to watch out for is the forecasted move back to the west after a loop. How long the system stalls and how fast it begins moving west are part of this, as is how strong the system is or is not at the time. The GFS and Euro are showing it weak, while a lot of the other intensity models are stronger, looks like the NHC forecast splits the difference. The NHC's been following the TVCN a lot lately, which has trended faster/further west on each run in the past day or so. Still doubtful it'll maintain it all the way toward the mainland, but it does mean the Bahamas will want to watch it closely once the loop and move west starts to happen.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Karen Lounge cieldumortModerator Wed Sep 25 2019 05:48 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Tue Sep 24 2019 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 24 2019 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 25 2019 05:48 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Wed Sep 25 2019 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge MissBecky   Thu Sep 26 2019 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Thu Sep 26 2019 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Thu Sep 26 2019 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge craigm   Sun Sep 22 2019 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2019 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 23 2019 09:49 AM

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