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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: deepening Caribbean gyre
      Thu May 28 2020 09:04 AM

Graphic for TC development June 3-9 (note moderate potential in vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

From the CPC 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook discussion:

Valid Thursday June 04, 2020 to Wednesday June 10, 2020
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 27 2020

A Kelvin wave (KW) is forecast to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during the next week. This KW is expected to reduce vertical wind shear and provide a favorable large-scale environment for tropical cyclone (TC) development across the East Pacific and/or the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche. A number of GFS and Canadian ensemble members continue to feature TC development near the Yucatan Peninsula with potential tracks north into the Gulf of Mexico, as early as next week. Although model spread is large with TC genesis and its potential future track, a slight risk of heavy rainfall is maintained for southern Florida through Week-2. Depending on future model runs, the slight risk of heavy rainfall may need to be expanded north to cover more of the Gulf Coast.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu May 28 2020 09:12 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* deepening Caribbean gyre IsoFlame Thu May 28 2020 09:04 AM
. * * Re: deepening Caribbean gyre Keith B   Wed May 27 2020 08:13 AM
. * * Re: deepening Caribbean gyre IsoFlame   Thu May 28 2020 09:04 AM
. * * Re: deepening Caribbean gyre IsoFlame   Sat May 30 2020 07:01 AM
. * * Re: deepening Caribbean gyre IsoFlame   Wed May 27 2020 08:06 AM

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