Tropical Storm Laura base map from Wunderground.com (IBM)
At 1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 NHC has Laura's center located at 17.8N 67.2W or about 40 miles to the WSW of Ponce, PR (denoted by the red "L" on the map above). However, the most recent surface and ship obs strongly suggest that the surface center is becoming much better aligned with the very healthy mid-level center. This mid-level circulation center has become obvious on radar. Based on surface obs I've drawn in a possible new surface center location "Unofficial LLC."
It is increasingly possible that Laura has reformed just south enough to bypass at least some direct island interaction, and is availing itself of the very warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this trend continue, Laura may indeed yet become a hurricane, albeit a good distance southwest of where it was originally forecast to do so.
Interests in the central to western Gulf of Mexico may want to begin paying much more attention to Laura, as the odds of not one, but possibly two landfalling significant tropical cyclones is going up.
This does not yet clear Florida. Tropical models seem to be struggling this year. They are lacking lots of flight data, and this is an especially unusual setup with two tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic so close to each other at the same time. As always, best to pay close attention to the NHC and local NWS for the most relevant, local and official weather information.
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