25 0z EURO and ensembles have come in, once again drastically left of OFCL (NHC center line) and this time even more so. In addition, it is worth noting that UKMET has outperformed so far, and while waiting on today's 0z ensembles, those from yesterday were well into Texas, overall - almost unanimously landfalling between Corpus Christi and the TX/LA border.
As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."
25 0z GFS ensemble members are almost entirely Texas landfalls.
The trend for a landfall centered in Texas rather than Louisiana continues, with a lot of ensembles honing in around Galveston/Houston. With the likelihood that Laura becomes a Major, this could be a rather 'worst case' outcome.
Two factors could serve to limit the death and destruction: 1. Forward speed should not be anything like Harvey, and 2. There are indications that at least some of the shear which served to shred Marco may still be present over a portion of the western Gulf, but counting on either or both to save the day seems foolish.
Residents along and many miles inland of the Texas coast from roughly Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border, as well as exposed portions of the entire Louisiana coastline and points inland (dangerous weather conditions will still extend a great distance from the center center, especially to the right of the center), may want to rush preparations to protect life and property as a large and significant hurricane could be making landfall within the next 40-60 hours, with weather rapidly deteriorating many hours before then.
It is also worth mentioning that a few ensemble members have been as far south as northeast Mexico/deep south Texas, but these are outliers.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 32956
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center