25 0z EURO and ensembles have come in, once again drastically left of OFCL (NHC center line) and this time even more so. In addition, it is worth noting that UKMET has outperformed so far, and while waiting on today's 0z ensembles, those from yesterday were well into Texas, overall - almost unanimously landfalling between Corpus Christi and the TX/LA border.
As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."
25 0z GFS ensemble members are almost entirely Texas landfalls.
The trend for a landfall centered in Texas rather than Louisiana continues, with a lot of ensembles honing in around Galveston/Houston. With the likelihood that Laura becomes a Major, this could be a rather 'worst case' outcome.
Two factors could serve to limit the death and destruction: 1. Forward speed should not be anything like Harvey, and 2. There are indications that at least some of the shear which served to shred Marco may still be present over a portion of the western Gulf, but counting on either or both to save the day seems foolish.
Residents along and many miles inland of the Texas coast from roughly Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border, as well as exposed portions of the entire Louisiana coastline and points inland (dangerous weather conditions will still extend a great distance from the center center, especially to the right of the center), may want to rush preparations to protect life and property as a large and significant hurricane could be making landfall within the next 40-60 hours, with weather rapidly deteriorating many hours before then.
It is also worth mentioning that a few ensemble members have been as far south as northeast Mexico/deep south Texas, but these are outliers.
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