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T.D. Pamela sending abundant moisture into TX and OK w flooding rains likely as well as severe Tstorms and tornadoes possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 32 (Nicholas) , Major: 48 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1102 (Michael) Major: 1102 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge
      Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM

25 0z EURO and ensembles have come in, once again drastically left of OFCL (NHC center line) and this time even more so. In addition, it is worth noting that UKMET has outperformed so far, and while waiting on today's 0z ensembles, those from yesterday were well into Texas, overall - almost unanimously landfalling between Corpus Christi and the TX/LA border.

As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."

25 0z GFS ensemble members are almost entirely Texas landfalls.


The trend for a landfall centered in Texas rather than Louisiana continues, with a lot of ensembles honing in around Galveston/Houston. With the likelihood that Laura becomes a Major, this could be a rather 'worst case' outcome.

Two factors could serve to limit the death and destruction: 1. Forward speed should not be anything like Harvey, and 2. There are indications that at least some of the shear which served to shred Marco may still be present over a portion of the western Gulf, but counting on either or both to save the day seems foolish.

Residents along and many miles inland of the Texas coast from roughly Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border, as well as exposed portions of the entire Louisiana coastline and points inland (dangerous weather conditions will still extend a great distance from the center center, especially to the right of the center), may want to rush preparations to protect life and property as a large and significant hurricane could be making landfall within the next 40-60 hours, with weather rapidly deteriorating many hours before then.

It is also worth mentioning that a few ensemble members have been as far south as northeast Mexico/deep south Texas, but these are outliers.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2020 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Aug 26 2020 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Aug 26 2020 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge Psyber   Wed Aug 26 2020 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2020 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 25 2020 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 25 2020 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 25 2020 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 24 2020 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 24 2020 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 24 2020 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 24 2020 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 22 2020 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 22 2020 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge scottsvb   Sat Aug 22 2020 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge Owlguin   Sat Aug 22 2020 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 22 2020 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge JMII   Sat Aug 22 2020 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 22 2020 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 22 2020 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Aug 23 2020 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge JMII   Sun Aug 23 2020 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Aug 23 2020 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge Prospero   Sun Aug 23 2020 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge JMII   Sun Aug 23 2020 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge Keith B   Sun Aug 23 2020 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 21 2020 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge MichaelA   Sat Aug 22 2020 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 22 2020 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge scottsvb   Sat Aug 22 2020 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 22 2020 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge JMII   Sat Aug 22 2020 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge scottsvb   Sat Aug 22 2020 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 22 2020 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge scottsvb   Sat Aug 22 2020 12:24 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Aug 21 2020 08:31 AM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Aug 21 2020 09:04 AM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 21 2020 10:43 AM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Fri Aug 21 2020 12:29 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Fri Aug 21 2020 12:29 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge EMS   Fri Aug 21 2020 12:57 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Fri Aug 21 2020 01:11 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Fri Aug 21 2020 02:23 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Aug 21 2020 02:44 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 21 2020 05:23 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 21 2020 08:43 AM
. * * Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Aug 21 2020 07:44 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 19 2020 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge Prospero   Wed Aug 19 2020 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge NewWatcher   Wed Aug 19 2020 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 19 2020 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2020 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2020 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2020 07:44 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 21 2020 05:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 19 2020 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge Prospero   Wed Aug 19 2020 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2020 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2020 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 19 2020 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Aug 19 2020 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 20 2020 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2020 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 20 2020 06:02 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Aug 20 2020 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2020 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 20 2020 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 19 2020 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge craigm   Tue Aug 18 2020 04:48 PM

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