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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge
Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM

25 0z EURO and ensembles have come in, once again drastically left of OFCL (NHC center line) and this time even more so. In addition, it is worth noting that UKMET has outperformed so far, and while waiting on today's 0z ensembles, those from yesterday were well into Texas, overall - almost unanimously landfalling between Corpus Christi and the TX/LA border.

As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."

25 0z GFS ensemble members are almost entirely Texas landfalls.

The trend for a landfall centered in Texas rather than Louisiana continues, with a lot of ensembles honing in around Galveston/Houston. With the likelihood that Laura becomes a Major, this could be a rather 'worst case' outcome.

Two factors could serve to limit the death and destruction: 1. Forward speed should not be anything like Harvey, and 2. There are indications that at least some of the shear which served to shred Marco may still be present over a portion of the western Gulf, but counting on either or both to save the day seems foolish.

Residents along and many miles inland of the Texas coast from roughly Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border, as well as exposed portions of the entire Louisiana coastline and points inland (dangerous weather conditions will still extend a great distance from the center center, especially to the right of the center), may want to rush preparations to protect life and property as a large and significant hurricane could be making landfall within the next 40-60 hours, with weather rapidly deteriorating many hours before then.

It is also worth mentioning that a few ensemble members have been as far south as northeast Mexico/deep south Texas, but these are outliers.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2020 08:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Aug 26 2020 03:15 PM
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Aug 26 2020 03:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge	Psyber	Wed Aug 26 2020 08:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2020 02:08 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 25 2020 04:04 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 25 2020 10:16 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	JMII	Tue Aug 25 2020 09:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 24 2020 07:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 24 2020 10:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 24 2020 01:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	MikeC	Mon Aug 24 2020 11:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 22 2020 01:23 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 22 2020 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	scottsvb	Sat Aug 22 2020 03:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	Owlguin	Sat Aug 22 2020 03:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 22 2020 03:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	JMII	Sat Aug 22 2020 08:35 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 22 2020 09:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 22 2020 10:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Aug 23 2020 07:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	JMII	Sun Aug 23 2020 09:04 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Aug 23 2020 02:08 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	Prospero	Sun Aug 23 2020 08:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	JMII	Sun Aug 23 2020 08:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	Keith B	Sun Aug 23 2020 01:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 21 2020 06:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	MichaelA	Sat Aug 22 2020 08:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 22 2020 10:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	scottsvb	Sat Aug 22 2020 11:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 22 2020 11:33 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	JMII	Sat Aug 22 2020 12:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	scottsvb	Sat Aug 22 2020 11:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 22 2020 12:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge	scottsvb	Sat Aug 22 2020 12:24 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Aug 21 2020 08:31 AM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	doug	Fri Aug 21 2020 09:04 AM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Aug 21 2020 10:43 AM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	scottsvb	Fri Aug 21 2020 12:29 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	scottsvb	Fri Aug 21 2020 12:29 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	EMS	Fri Aug 21 2020 12:57 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	scottsvb	Fri Aug 21 2020 01:11 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	scottsvb	Fri Aug 21 2020 02:23 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	doug	Fri Aug 21 2020 02:44 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	JMII	Fri Aug 21 2020 05:23 PM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	JMII	Fri Aug 21 2020 08:43 AM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Aug 21 2020 07:44 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 19 2020 03:38 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Wed Aug 19 2020 06:45 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	NewWatcher	Wed Aug 19 2020 08:42 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 19 2020 10:34 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 20 2020 12:37 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 20 2020 06:59 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 20 2020 07:44 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 21 2020 05:30 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 19 2020 08:21 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Wed Aug 19 2020 08:36 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Aug 18 2020 08:56 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Aug 18 2020 10:10 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 19 2020 07:54 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	doug	Wed Aug 19 2020 10:06 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	JMII	Thu Aug 20 2020 09:07 AM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 20 2020 12:23 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	scottsvb	Thu Aug 20 2020 06:02 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Thu Aug 20 2020 08:53 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Aug 20 2020 10:02 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Aug 20 2020 10:40 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 19 2020 12:15 PM
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge	craigm	Tue Aug 18 2020 04:48 PM

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