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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
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Pres: 943mb
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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2106
Loc: Austin, Tx
Teddy Lounge
      Thu Sep 10 2020 05:45 AM


Above: East Atlantic Wave 09/10/20 0925z

An impressive wave is moving off the west coast of Africa today and has a high chance of development as conditions look favorable as it travels westward. (NHC 60%/90%).

This wave is not yet Invest tagged, but will be any time now, and we will update the title accordingly.

Model guidance has been uniformly bullish and steadfast on ramping this wave up into a strong tropical cyclone, and while yet very early, interests from the Greater Antilles to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may already want to begin keeping watch of this one, as this disturbance has some potential to become a long-track, high ACE, significant hurricane with multiple landfalls, given that it is starting further south than others we have been watching roll off Africa, and is set to enjoy peak season conditions for development.


Long-range model guidance 09/0z Runs:

ECMWF - Strong Tropical Storm or perhaps Cat 1 just off the north coast of central Cuba on 0z Sunday Sep 20 (end of run)

GFS - 967hPa hurricane crossing the Leeward Islands 0z Thursday Sep 14, 951hPa just south of Hispaniola on 0z Saturday Sep 19, growing in size 952hPa hurricane just south of western Cuba 12z Tuesday Sep 22, large 954hPa hurricane approaching landfall somewhere around Ozello along the west coast of Florida by 0z Friday Sep 25.


This disturbance has been Invest tagged this evening (95L) and the title has been updated accordingly. On 9/12/20 95L was, at long last, designated a Tropical Cyclone ;-) TD20 and the title has been updated.

--------------------
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Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 14 2020 05:43 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Teddy Lounge cieldumortModerator Thu Sep 10 2020 05:45 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 11 2020 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 10 2020 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Vigorous E Atlantic Wave cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 10 2020 01:26 PM

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