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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)

Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 95L Lounge
      Fri Sep 11 2020 11:22 AM

Friday morning and the apparent cyclone that existed with 95L yesterday is almost no more, with just a weak swirl left in its place as the westernmost lobe of the bipole wave, which was robust, has mingled with the eastern lobe, resulting in a more elongated and loose circulation. A prudent move of the NHC not to pull the trigger Thursday, as it would have been one of those calls requiring apologetic sounding updates the very next day.

With systems this far out and so much ocean left to cover, the need to PTC a system isn't there, but it could in theory help models run better, cleaner. Having an Invest number also helps, and the disturbance did get that last night.

There's been an appreciable shift away from the US by models today, as they have continued to spread out like a fan. With multiple systems existing and forecast to form in the central Atlantic over the next few days, the region is in a bit of chaotic flux. Combined with not having much of a 'center' to lock on to now, models will likely struggle with 95L for a while. The general forward motion is west for the time being, and it goes without saying that the further west 95L gets the more the Antilles remain a potential hit.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Teddy Lounge cieldumortModerator Fri Sep 11 2020 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 11 2020 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 10 2020 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Vigorous E Atlantic Wave cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 10 2020 01:26 PM

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