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Very quiet now as shear and dry Saharan air cover much of the Atlantic
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Nicholas) , Major: 310 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1364 (Michael) Major: 1364 (Michael)

Archives 2020s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Delta Lounge
      Tue Oct 06 2020 01:21 AM

10 06 0z model runs coming in that are adapting to the more southern initial position as well as increased strength are continuing a trend of placing the Yucatan under a direct threat for a Cat 3 - 5 impact, and then an even farther run west, to possibly ride just offshore of the Texas coast before making landfall in Louisiana.

This is a reasonable solution, and an extremely dangerous outcome if verified.

The last two serious hurricanes to directly impact in and around Cancun were Wilma (2005) and Gilbert (1988) (h/t Michael Ventrice). History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it can rhyme, and several of the better models have them impacted at Cat 3-5 range.

Later in the period, a trof coming across Texas is expected to turn Delta north and then north-northeast, but timing and relative strength of both are critical. Continued shifts to the left or right are likely. Even tonight recon is finding evidence that a center reformation may again be underway (odd for a hurricane).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Delta Lounge cieldumortModerator Tue Oct 06 2020 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 06 2020 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge Rob Moser   Tue Oct 06 2020 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 06 2020 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 05 2020 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 05 2020 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 05 2020 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge kspkap   Mon Oct 05 2020 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Delta Lounge kspkap   Mon Oct 05 2020 02:10 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 04 2020 05:15 PM

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