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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
The end may be near for 95L.
      Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM

Just as curiousity kills the cat, convection (or lack of) kills the prospect. Ever since last evening this system has been going downhill with all of it's convection nearly dissipating overnight. It has some back today, but it also looks more elongated. Didn't think I'd have to say this...it's dead and my forecast was way off of the mark.

There is an interesting "blob" off of southeast Florida today that has gained some attention. It looks pretty decent on satellite imagery (actually, I'll say it looks better than 95L despite it having no circulation) but I'm staying conservative with this one. It must first get some type of LLC, which may not occur until it is in the Gulf, if at all. NHC hasn't mentioned this system yet, and I don't believe they will until it is in the Gulf and until it shows persistence. If it does develop a circulation, it could develop. In any event, 95L is probably a good warm-up for the hurricane hunters. I'll stay conservative with development chances, 3-5% and only in the GOMEX. But with steering currents as weak as they are, they could give this system a chance to sit and brew. Who knows what could happen then.

ITCZ: The western area of it has been very active lately. It needs to come more north, and the upper-level conditions need to become more favorable for one of these waves to develop. However, since the waves seem to flaring up further west, my ideas of developments closer to the islands this year may be in line. We'll see.

I had to ask...




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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Texas Does not Need This CFHCAdministrator Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Tropical Weather Watchers Forecast Center Jason Moreland   Mon Jul 08 2002 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Texas Does not Need This CaneMan   Mon Jul 08 2002 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Texas Does not Need This Colleen A.   Mon Jul 08 2002 10:57 AM
. * * Buoy Readings Colleen A.   Mon Jul 08 2002 11:32 AM
. * * gulf/florida Anonymous (HF)   Mon Jul 08 2002 01:08 PM
. * * The end may be near for 95L. Kevin   Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Re: The end may be near for 95L. Rich B   Mon Jul 08 2002 03:39 PM
. * * Florida System & 95L Colleen A.   Mon Jul 08 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Colleen, my assessment of what really is happening Frank P   Mon Jul 08 2002 05:19 PM
. * * when to write off Anonymous (HF)   Mon Jul 08 2002 06:07 PM
. * * Re: when to write off ShawnS   Mon Jul 08 2002 07:11 PM
. * * a go at a forecast!!! Matthew   Mon Jul 08 2002 07:33 PM
. * * Re: a go at a forecast!!! Matthew   Tue Jul 09 2002 03:58 AM
. * * Re: a go at a forecast!!! Anonymous   Mon Jul 08 2002 08:04 PM
. * * Re: a go at a forecast!!! Steve   Mon Jul 08 2002 08:01 PM
. * * Florida convection and more. Kevin   Mon Jul 08 2002 07:25 PM
. * * Low Level Circulation Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2002 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Low Level Circulation Rad   Mon Jul 08 2002 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Low Level Circulation Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2002 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Low Level Circulation wxman007   Mon Jul 08 2002 10:09 PM
. * * Some sort of Spin!! ShawnS   Mon Jul 08 2002 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Some sort of Spin!! wxman007   Mon Jul 08 2002 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Some sort of Spin!! ShawnS   Tue Jul 09 2002 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Some sort of Spin!! wxman007   Tue Jul 09 2002 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Some sort of Spin!! Bruce   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Some sort of Spin!! Robert   Thu Jul 11 2002 01:57 AM
. * * 96L Rich B   Thu Jul 11 2002 05:30 AM
. * * Re: 96L CaneMan   Thu Jul 11 2002 06:04 AM
. * * Re: 96L recmod   Thu Jul 11 2002 11:07 AM
. * * Re: 96L CaneMan   Thu Jul 11 2002 06:07 AM
. * * Re: 96L Rich B   Thu Jul 11 2002 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 96L Matthew   Thu Jul 11 2002 09:03 AM
. * * Here's a prediction for Tuesday and Wednesday... Steve   Tue Jul 09 2002 01:06 AM
. * * time to drop it Anonymous (HF)   Tue Jul 09 2002 02:08 AM
. * * Re: time to drop it Rich B   Tue Jul 09 2002 04:47 AM
. * * Re: time to drop it Frank P   Tue Jul 09 2002 09:17 AM
. * * Re: time to drop it Frank P   Tue Jul 09 2002 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Jason CaneMan   Tue Jul 09 2002 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Jason wxman007   Tue Jul 09 2002 10:35 AM
. * * Heavy Rain Joe   Tue Jul 09 2002 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Heavy Rain Steve   Tue Jul 09 2002 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Heavy Rain Frank P   Tue Jul 09 2002 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Heavy Rain CaneMan   Tue Jul 09 2002 01:10 PM
. * * east gulf Anonymous (HF)   Tue Jul 09 2002 02:48 PM
. * * 96L Anonymous   Tue Jul 09 2002 03:12 PM
. * * Re: 96L Anonymous-Doug   Tue Jul 09 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Re: 96L Colleen A.   Tue Jul 09 2002 05:26 PM
. * * d ratings Anonymous (HF)   Tue Jul 09 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Eastern Gulf Joe   Tue Jul 09 2002 06:14 PM
. * * Re: d ratings Colleen A.   Tue Jul 09 2002 06:10 PM
. * * Caneman Rad   Tue Jul 09 2002 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Caneman Steve   Tue Jul 09 2002 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Caneman Frank P   Tue Jul 09 2002 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Caneman ShawnS   Tue Jul 09 2002 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Caneman CaneMAn   Tue Jul 09 2002 09:06 PM
. * * Steve Lyon's eyes may be seriously mistaken. Kevin   Tue Jul 09 2002 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Steve Lyon's eyes may be seriously mistaken. Rad   Tue Jul 09 2002 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Steve Lyon's eyes may be seriously mistaken. Joe   Tue Jul 09 2002 11:54 PM
. * * er Anonymous (HF)   Wed Jul 10 2002 01:25 AM
. * * coming week Anonymous   Wed Jul 10 2002 02:15 AM
. * * Re: coming week Robert   Wed Jul 10 2002 02:19 AM
. * * Re: coming week Matthew   Wed Jul 10 2002 06:39 AM
. * * messed up on a few words sorry Matthew   Wed Jul 10 2002 06:41 AM
. * * Does S. Florida Need This? Hurric   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Does S. Florida Need This? HURRICANELONNY   Wed Jul 10 2002 08:14 AM
. * * Early morning obs Frank P   Wed Jul 10 2002 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Early morning obs Rich B   Wed Jul 10 2002 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Early morning obs Frank P   Wed Jul 10 2002 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Early morning obs Frank P   Wed Jul 10 2002 10:09 AM
. * * wow that low looks nice. Matthew   Wed Jul 10 2002 10:17 AM
. * * Gabrielle Rad   Wed Jul 10 2002 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Gabrielle CaneMan   Wed Jul 10 2002 12:13 PM
. * * Test on 96L garyb   Wed Jul 10 2002 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Test on 96L Anonymous   Wed Jul 10 2002 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Test on 96L Steve   Wed Jul 10 2002 02:30 PM
. * * GFDL.... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:03 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... andy1tom   Wed Jul 10 2002 05:05 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 05:12 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... Steve   Wed Jul 10 2002 06:00 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... Rich B   Wed Jul 10 2002 06:40 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 06:43 PM
. * * Anybody think... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Anybody think... Rich B   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Anybody think... Matthew   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:22 PM
. * * another look Anonymous (HF)   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:52 PM
. * * New Test Runs garyb   Thu Jul 11 2002 09:25 AM
. * * this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were Matthew   Thu Jul 11 2002 09:43 AM
. * * Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were Anonymous   Thu Jul 11 2002 11:08 AM
. * * Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were GaryC   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:10 PM
. * * Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were Joe   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:17 PM
. * * different page Anonymous (HF)   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:55 PM
. * * hey, where are the west florida people at? GaryC   Thu Jul 11 2002 01:07 PM
. * * Re: hey, where are the west florida people at? Rad   Thu Jul 11 2002 09:56 PM
. * * Southern cross? Rad   Fri Jul 12 2002 07:06 AM
. * * Re: Southern cross? Matthew   Fri Jul 12 2002 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Southern cross? Matthew   Fri Jul 12 2002 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Southern cross? Joe   Fri Jul 12 2002 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Southern cross? CaneMan   Fri Jul 12 2002 11:13 AM
. * * friday, take four Anonymous (HF)   Thu Jul 11 2002 11:25 PM
. * * Re: hey, where are the west florida people at? CaneMan   Thu Jul 11 2002 01:16 PM
. * * Re: hey, where are the west florida people at? BabyCat   Thu Jul 11 2002 01:42 PM
. * * Getting interesting Stormfan   Thu Jul 11 2002 03:33 PM
. * * upper/surface lows Anonymous (HF)   Thu Jul 11 2002 01:49 PM
. * * Re: upper/surface lows CaneMan   Thu Jul 11 2002 01:57 PM
. * * Re: upper/surface lows BabyCat   Thu Jul 11 2002 03:05 PM
. * * Re: upper/surface lows garyb   Thu Jul 11 2002 03:37 PM
. * * Re: upper/surface lows BabyCat   Thu Jul 11 2002 03:50 PM
. * * what a mess Anonymous (HF)   Thu Jul 11 2002 05:48 PM
. * * Re: what a mess Joe   Thu Jul 11 2002 06:00 PM
. * * Re: what a mess Rich B   Thu Jul 11 2002 06:14 PM
. * * Re: upper/surface lows Joe   Thu Jul 11 2002 02:07 PM
. * * Re: upper/surface lows Anonymous-(Doug)   Thu Jul 11 2002 03:04 PM
. * * Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were Rich B   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:38 PM
. * * Gulf Low Joe   Thu Jul 11 2002 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low MarkR   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Rich B   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:09 PM
. * * Re: another look ShawnS   Wed Jul 10 2002 09:22 PM
. * * 18z GFDL is.... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 09:55 PM
. * * Re: 18z GFDL is.... ShawnS   Wed Jul 10 2002 11:04 PM
. * * Re: 18z GFDL is.... Steve   Thu Jul 11 2002 12:02 AM
. * * Re: GFDL.... ShawnS   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:08 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... Frank P   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:17 PM
. * * routine GFDL Anonymous (HF)   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:28 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:28 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... Steve   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:22 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... GaryC   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:31 PM
. * * more Anonymous (HF)   Wed Jul 10 2002 05:03 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... wxman007   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... Steve   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:16 PM
. * * Re: GFDL.... jth   Wed Jul 10 2002 04:16 PM
. * * lessons Anonymous (HF)   Wed Jul 10 2002 12:06 PM
. * * Re: lessons Frank P   Wed Jul 10 2002 12:49 PM
. * * Re: gabby Rad   Wed Jul 10 2002 12:13 PM
. * * no there ants all over my bed. Anonymous   Wed Jul 10 2002 07:47 AM
. * * My world tropical forecast was whiped off!!! Matthew   Wed Jul 10 2002 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Caneman BabyCat   Tue Jul 09 2002 08:11 PM
. * * Re: 96L Rich B   Tue Jul 09 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 96L Steve   Tue Jul 09 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Heavy Rain Anonymous-(Doug)   Tue Jul 09 2002 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Heavy Rain Frank P   Tue Jul 09 2002 02:23 PM
. * * Eastern Gulf Joe   Tue Jul 09 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Re: time to drop it wxman007   Tue Jul 09 2002 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Low Level Circulation ShawnS   Mon Jul 08 2002 08:34 PM

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