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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

The end may be near for 95L.
Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM

Just as curiousity kills the cat, convection (or lack of) kills the prospect. Ever since last evening this system has been going downhill with all of it's convection nearly dissipating overnight. It has some back today, but it also looks more elongated. Didn't think I'd have to say this...it's dead and my forecast was way off of the mark.

There is an interesting "blob" off of southeast Florida today that has gained some attention. It looks pretty decent on satellite imagery (actually, I'll say it looks better than 95L despite it having no circulation) but I'm staying conservative with this one. It must first get some type of LLC, which may not occur until it is in the Gulf, if at all. NHC hasn't mentioned this system yet, and I don't believe they will until it is in the Gulf and until it shows persistence. If it does develop a circulation, it could develop. In any event, 95L is probably a good warm-up for the hurricane hunters. I'll stay conservative with development chances, 3-5% and only in the GOMEX. But with steering currents as weak as they are, they could give this system a chance to sit and brew. Who knows what could happen then.

ITCZ: The western area of it has been very active lately. It needs to come more north, and the upper-level conditions need to become more favorable for one of these waves to develop. However, since the waves seem to flaring up further west, my ideas of developments closer to the islands this year may be in line. We'll see.

I had to ask...

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Texas Does not Need This	CFHC	Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM
Tropical Weather Watchers Forecast Center	Jason Moreland	Mon Jul 08 2002 07:01 PM
Re: Texas Does not Need This	CaneMan	Mon Jul 08 2002 09:29 AM
Re: Texas Does not Need This	Colleen A.	Mon Jul 08 2002 10:57 AM
Buoy Readings	Colleen A.	Mon Jul 08 2002 11:32 AM
gulf/florida	Anonymous (HF)	Mon Jul 08 2002 01:08 PM
The end may be near for 95L.	Kevin	Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM
Re: The end may be near for 95L.	Rich B	Mon Jul 08 2002 03:39 PM
Florida System & 95L	Colleen A.	Mon Jul 08 2002 03:47 PM
Colleen, my assessment of what really is happening	Frank P	Mon Jul 08 2002 05:19 PM
when to write off	Anonymous (HF)	Mon Jul 08 2002 06:07 PM
Re: when to write off	ShawnS	Mon Jul 08 2002 07:11 PM
a go at a forecast!!!	Matthew	Mon Jul 08 2002 07:33 PM
Re: a go at a forecast!!!	Matthew	Tue Jul 09 2002 03:58 AM
Re: a go at a forecast!!!	Anonymous	Mon Jul 08 2002 08:04 PM
Re: a go at a forecast!!!	Steve	Mon Jul 08 2002 08:01 PM
Florida convection and more.	Kevin	Mon Jul 08 2002 07:25 PM
Low Level Circulation	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 08 2002 08:09 PM
Re: Low Level Circulation	Rad	Mon Jul 08 2002 08:14 PM
Re: Low Level Circulation	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 08 2002 08:55 PM
Re: Low Level Circulation	wxman007	Mon Jul 08 2002 10:09 PM
Some sort of Spin!!	ShawnS	Mon Jul 08 2002 11:17 PM
Re: Some sort of Spin!!	wxman007	Mon Jul 08 2002 11:36 PM
Re: Some sort of Spin!!	ShawnS	Tue Jul 09 2002 12:09 AM
Re: Some sort of Spin!!	wxman007	Tue Jul 09 2002 12:24 AM
Re: Some sort of Spin!!	Bruce	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:48 AM
Re: Some sort of Spin!!	Robert	Thu Jul 11 2002 01:57 AM
96L	Rich B	Thu Jul 11 2002 05:30 AM
Re: 96L	CaneMan	Thu Jul 11 2002 06:04 AM
Re: 96L	recmod	Thu Jul 11 2002 11:07 AM
Re: 96L	CaneMan	Thu Jul 11 2002 06:07 AM
Re: 96L	Rich B	Thu Jul 11 2002 07:48 AM
Re: 96L	Matthew	Thu Jul 11 2002 09:03 AM
Here's a prediction for Tuesday and Wednesday...	Steve	Tue Jul 09 2002 01:06 AM
time to drop it	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jul 09 2002 02:08 AM
Re: time to drop it	Rich B	Tue Jul 09 2002 04:47 AM
Re: time to drop it	Frank P	Tue Jul 09 2002 09:17 AM
Re: time to drop it	Frank P	Tue Jul 09 2002 09:39 AM
Re: Jason	CaneMan	Tue Jul 09 2002 09:53 AM
Re: Jason	wxman007	Tue Jul 09 2002 10:35 AM
Heavy Rain	Joe	Tue Jul 09 2002 11:01 AM
Re: Heavy Rain	Steve	Tue Jul 09 2002 11:50 AM
Re: Heavy Rain	Frank P	Tue Jul 09 2002 12:29 PM
Re: Heavy Rain	CaneMan	Tue Jul 09 2002 01:10 PM
east gulf	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jul 09 2002 02:48 PM
96L	Anonymous	Tue Jul 09 2002 03:12 PM
Re: 96L	Anonymous-Doug	Tue Jul 09 2002 03:42 PM
Re: 96L	Colleen A.	Tue Jul 09 2002 05:26 PM
d ratings	Anonymous (HF)	Tue Jul 09 2002 06:04 PM
Eastern Gulf	Joe	Tue Jul 09 2002 06:14 PM
Re: d ratings	Colleen A.	Tue Jul 09 2002 06:10 PM
Caneman	Rad	Tue Jul 09 2002 06:37 PM
Re: Caneman	Steve	Tue Jul 09 2002 07:07 PM
Re: Caneman	Frank P	Tue Jul 09 2002 08:19 PM
Re: Caneman	ShawnS	Tue Jul 09 2002 08:38 PM
Re: Caneman	CaneMAn	Tue Jul 09 2002 09:06 PM
Steve Lyon's eyes may be seriously mistaken.	Kevin	Tue Jul 09 2002 10:00 PM
Re: Steve Lyon's eyes may be seriously mistaken.	Rad	Tue Jul 09 2002 10:16 PM
Re: Steve Lyon's eyes may be seriously mistaken.	Joe	Tue Jul 09 2002 11:54 PM
er	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 10 2002 01:25 AM
coming week	Anonymous	Wed Jul 10 2002 02:15 AM
Re: coming week	Robert	Wed Jul 10 2002 02:19 AM
Re: coming week	Matthew	Wed Jul 10 2002 06:39 AM
messed up on a few words sorry	Matthew	Wed Jul 10 2002 06:41 AM
Does S. Florida Need This?	Hurric	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:53 AM
Re: Does S. Florida Need This?	HURRICANELONNY	Wed Jul 10 2002 08:14 AM
Early morning obs	Frank P	Wed Jul 10 2002 08:50 AM
Re: Early morning obs	Rich B	Wed Jul 10 2002 09:18 AM
Re: Early morning obs	Frank P	Wed Jul 10 2002 10:02 AM
Re: Early morning obs	Frank P	Wed Jul 10 2002 10:09 AM
wow that low looks nice.	Matthew	Wed Jul 10 2002 10:17 AM
Gabrielle	Rad	Wed Jul 10 2002 12:08 PM
Re: Gabrielle	CaneMan	Wed Jul 10 2002 12:13 PM
Test on 96L	garyb	Wed Jul 10 2002 01:20 PM
Re: Test on 96L	Anonymous	Wed Jul 10 2002 01:54 PM
Re: Test on 96L	Steve	Wed Jul 10 2002 02:30 PM
GFDL....	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:03 PM
Re: GFDL....	andy1tom	Wed Jul 10 2002 05:05 PM
Re: GFDL....	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 05:12 PM
Re: GFDL....	Steve	Wed Jul 10 2002 06:00 PM
Re: GFDL....	Rich B	Wed Jul 10 2002 06:40 PM
Re: GFDL....	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 06:43 PM
Anybody think...	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:08 PM
Re: Anybody think...	Rich B	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:30 PM
Re: Anybody think...	Matthew	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:22 PM
another look	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:52 PM
New Test Runs	garyb	Thu Jul 11 2002 09:25 AM
this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were	Matthew	Thu Jul 11 2002 09:43 AM
Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were	Anonymous	Thu Jul 11 2002 11:08 AM
Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were	GaryC	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:10 PM
Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were	Joe	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:17 PM
different page	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:55 PM
hey, where are the west florida people at?	GaryC	Thu Jul 11 2002 01:07 PM
Re: hey, where are the west florida people at?	Rad	Thu Jul 11 2002 09:56 PM
Southern cross?	Rad	Fri Jul 12 2002 07:06 AM
Re: Southern cross?	Matthew	Fri Jul 12 2002 07:49 AM
Re: Southern cross?	Matthew	Fri Jul 12 2002 07:53 AM
Re: Southern cross?	Joe	Fri Jul 12 2002 10:47 AM
Re: Southern cross?	CaneMan	Fri Jul 12 2002 11:13 AM
friday, take four	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Jul 11 2002 11:25 PM
Re: hey, where are the west florida people at?	CaneMan	Thu Jul 11 2002 01:16 PM
Re: hey, where are the west florida people at?	BabyCat	Thu Jul 11 2002 01:42 PM
Getting interesting	Stormfan	Thu Jul 11 2002 03:33 PM
upper/surface lows	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Jul 11 2002 01:49 PM
Re: upper/surface lows	CaneMan	Thu Jul 11 2002 01:57 PM
Re: upper/surface lows	BabyCat	Thu Jul 11 2002 03:05 PM
Re: upper/surface lows	garyb	Thu Jul 11 2002 03:37 PM
Re: upper/surface lows	BabyCat	Thu Jul 11 2002 03:50 PM
what a mess	Anonymous (HF)	Thu Jul 11 2002 05:48 PM
Re: what a mess	Joe	Thu Jul 11 2002 06:00 PM
Re: what a mess	Rich B	Thu Jul 11 2002 06:14 PM
Re: upper/surface lows	Joe	Thu Jul 11 2002 02:07 PM
Re: upper/surface lows	Anonymous-(Doug)	Thu Jul 11 2002 03:04 PM
Re: this is not the 96l its a fast low out of now were	Rich B	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:38 PM
Gulf Low	Joe	Thu Jul 11 2002 11:49 AM
Re: Gulf Low	MarkR	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:00 PM
Re: Gulf Low	Rich B	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:09 PM
Re: another look	ShawnS	Wed Jul 10 2002 09:22 PM
18z GFDL is....	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 09:55 PM
Re: 18z GFDL is....	ShawnS	Wed Jul 10 2002 11:04 PM
Re: 18z GFDL is....	Steve	Thu Jul 11 2002 12:02 AM
Re: GFDL....	ShawnS	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:08 PM
Re: GFDL....	Frank P	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:17 PM
routine GFDL	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:28 PM
Re: GFDL....	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:28 PM
Re: GFDL....	Steve	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:22 PM
Re: GFDL....	GaryC	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:31 PM
more	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 10 2002 05:03 PM
Re: GFDL....	wxman007	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:58 PM
Re: GFDL....	Steve	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:16 PM
Re: GFDL....	jth	Wed Jul 10 2002 04:16 PM
lessons	Anonymous (HF)	Wed Jul 10 2002 12:06 PM
Re: lessons	Frank P	Wed Jul 10 2002 12:49 PM
Re: gabby	Rad	Wed Jul 10 2002 12:13 PM
no there ants all over my bed.	Anonymous	Wed Jul 10 2002 07:47 AM
My world tropical forecast was whiped off!!!	Matthew	Wed Jul 10 2002 01:23 AM
Re: Caneman	BabyCat	Tue Jul 09 2002 08:11 PM
Re: 96L	Rich B	Tue Jul 09 2002 04:37 PM
Re: 96L	Steve	Tue Jul 09 2002 03:32 PM
Re: Heavy Rain	Anonymous-(Doug)	Tue Jul 09 2002 12:26 PM
Re: Heavy Rain	Frank P	Tue Jul 09 2002 02:23 PM
Eastern Gulf	Joe	Tue Jul 09 2002 02:45 PM
Re: time to drop it	wxman007	Tue Jul 09 2002 09:23 AM
Re: Low Level Circulation	ShawnS	Mon Jul 08 2002 08:34 PM

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