The Isabel Challenge - FLHurricane.com

Many of you have been a bit critical of the NHC regarding their forecast track for Henri and certainly critical regarding the media emphasis on a significant flood threat for Florida. On the flooding threat, the potential did exist and fortunately it did not materialize - remember, it was a flood Watch, not a flood Warning.

On the NHC performance, their track emphasis was based on the model outputs and the models certainly did not perform well on this system. Some of you correctly noted that with a weak system the model performance can be sub par - and it certainly was. My own preference is to use the model output only as a guide and to ignore them if I have a good reason to disagree. I ended up with the correct track forecast, but that means nothing when its a day late.

Long range forecasting for emergency planning purposes is a tough business to be in, but when lives could be threatened, the forecast must still be made. Here is a challenge for you - it is not intended to be for fun since a hurricane is serious business - its purpose is to demonstrate how difficult this task can be (and to give yourself an idea of how good you might be at this stuff).

Earlier today Tropical Storm Isabel formed in the far eastern Atlantic near 14N 34W at 13Z. Assuming that it does not fall apart before then, Where will Isabel be located at 12Z (8am ET) on September 13th (a week from now)? Give a best guess for latitude, longitude and storm strength (in knots) and post it in this Forum BEFORE 8PM TONIGHT. I'll hold off on making my own forecast post until then (but I'll send it to John right now). Provide rationale for your forecast if you wish, but don't argue that NHC is trained to do this - no amount of training can really help you with a one week forecast. It will sure be interesting to see if anyone (myself included) can come within 2 degrees and 10 knots of what the actual position/intensity is at that point in time.

Don't be shy - give it a try!
Cheers,
ED

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