My local tv stations need proofreaders too, as they put up graphics showing the same thing. A couple of factors are in play:1) the NHC doen't have good photo coverage of Isa right now, and 2) no model could have been run correctly because they didn't have the position and direction right to begin with. As far as I can tell there running off the Meteosat images, which are every six hours. Well, I think there every six hours because that's all I can find. I know it's not in GOES range yet, won't be until tomorrow.
As far as the models go, I've tried to look at what's happening around the storm, such as the ridge above it. I havn't seen anything that curved Isa away from the islands at all, and the door does not seem open for it to run shortly after that( to the north). My early gut feeling is with it being 2-3 degrees further south than Fabian, and with everything building back in down the road, that it could be far more trouble than Fabian was, but not as strong. I swear that even if it took a WNW, NW jog after the islands, the high above it builds in hard core cutting the escape route off. But that's my early, no clue take on things.
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 67436
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: NHC Discontinuity
Edit
Reply
Quote
