isabel should be a very powerful hurricane by monday afternoon. off to the east the new african disturbance is already getting rated by SSD. too weak, but thats not bad for a system at 19W. there is about 18 degrees of longitude between it and isabel, so there shouldnt be space problems. could be isabel's little brother juan.
if there's any hint from the teleconnections, a westpac system is soon to recurve towards korea/western japan. it should turn up after 48hrs.. so set the timer from monday evening.. if i'm not mistaken the western hemisphere reflection will show up 6-10 days later. so excepting that isabel slows under the gap in the ridge left by henri, or that something else nips off the western end of the ridge.. using the median date, isabel turns up around sep 16th. that's a goofy, oversimplified use of teleconnection (probably incorrect), but considering that isabel should be near the islands on sep 12th, move it ahead 4 days and it's fairly close to the southeastern united states. SOI's signal is for ridging starting early in the upcoming week, though models arent too excited about a strong atlantic ridge, there is that NAO positive flattening that implies westward motion in the deep tropics. a system moving wnw past the islands on september 11th-12th is the problem scenario to look for, so get hyped if this sort of solution is being progged late next week.
must do laundry. college weekend hours.
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