14L is now listed as a 30kt depression on the nrl site.. as usual, an hour and a half before the nhc puts out advisories. there are now about 20 degrees of separation between isabel and this system, so it shouldnt be beaten to death by its predecessor. note that most global models take it NW in the eastern atlantic. guidance is fairly clustered on isabel at 5 days.. just north of the virgin islands. 06z gfs has a very unpleasant solution, by the way. lets hope that the models are failing to maintain the upper trough ahead of isabel, and that it won't weaken or progress.. otherwise the storm will be in the bahamas next week.
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