NHC definitely sees the upper low, and wrote about it in the 5 am discussion. But they mentioned that models suggest it will weaken and move to the west, and have relied on that guidance. I think it will be another 24 hours or so before we know if that will verify, so there may be a bit of a more N component than predicted until that time without forcing the NHC to re-think its thought of a more W motion later in the period.
But of course the models may be wrong about that feature - I hope so. I'd love to see a fish spinner!
Here's from the 5 am discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BUT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER COLD LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST OF ISABEL. THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS COLD LOW MAY BE ADDING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE MOTION. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THIS
SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN IT.
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Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel
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