hypercane: may want to get more-informed input re: this matter, but I think the west turn should take place because of the huge high pressure ridge above Isabel; assuming there isn't a weakness in the ridge that the NHC isn't seeing, it should turn somewhat more westerly.
Therefore, if the ULL didn't continue its march westward, it would have more of a tendency to shear Isabel than to turn her north, because the high pressure ridge wouldn't allow her to turn abruptly north. (Assuming, of course, a weakness in that ridge doesn't develop; if one does, then the ULL can turn her north.)
Lisa: are you referring to the upper level low around 62 West? If so, it's always possible it could work its way down to the surface, but it's highly unlikely.
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