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Area in the MDR Atlantic being watched for later next week, 20% chance of development. Leeward Islands need to watch closely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 18 (Beryl) , Major: 331 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 331 (Idalia) Major: 331 (Idalia)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
      Fri Jul 02 2021 05:32 PM

Latest NOAA recon stated that the 700mb center was not well defined and somewhat displaced from the surface circulation indicating that the rapid westward movement of the surface low may be outrunning the mid-level low. Once the LL circulation slows, it may become better stacked. However, shear is expected to increase as well. NHC also states that the intensity forecast has lower confidence in the longterm period as well as low confidence in track guidance in days 4 - 5. Elsa is going to require close scrutiny in the coming days. Stay alert, my friends.

--------------------
Michael

PWS

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings cieldumort Fri Jul 02 2021 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings MichaelA   Mon Jul 05 2021 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings cieldumort   Mon Jul 05 2021 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 02 2021 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings MichaelA   Fri Jul 02 2021 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings cieldumort   Fri Jul 02 2021 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 02 2021 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings cieldumort   Fri Jul 02 2021 03:04 PM

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