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The area near the Yucatan Peninsula (now Invest 99L) has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 339 (Nicholas) , Major: 354 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1408 (Michael) Major: 1408 (Michael)

Archives 2020s >> 2021 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
Pamela: TX/GOM Potential
      Fri Oct 08 2021 11:18 PM

Above: Broad Low Pressure Invest 91E 10-8-21 5:40PM Image credit: Zoom Earth

A broad area of low pressure associated with a stout tropical wave that just crossed over from the southern Caribbean to the East Pac and presently situated a few hundred miles south-southeast of Tehuantepec, MX is largely forecast by models to develop into a strong tropical cyclone, potentially Major Hurricane, and recurve into mainland Mexico with at least some semblance of continuity all the way across into Texas and/or the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late next week.

This feature has already been Invest tagged, 91E, E for it developing in the Eastern Pacific, with NHC development odds of 90% within 5 days as of this entry.

Some may recall that we opted not to open a Lounge on the system that went on to become World Record Setting Hurricane Patricia , but that situation was different. At the time there were already two posts, one in the Forecast Lounge, and one in Other Storm Basins, covering two distinct and separate vorticities within a Central American Gyre, and early on the vort that went on to become Patricia was not explicitly forecast by models to land back in the Gulf. By the way, this was a fascinating event, and that thread is still up if you would like to check it out: ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes

This is a situation at first blush may seem to be an exception to the rule here, in that the Forecast Lounge is explicitly for systems in or forecast for the Atlantic, with the notable exception of Hawaii, but in reality the strongest reason for inclusion is that several quality models and on numerous runs already advertise that 91E, in some fashion, will wind up in the Gulf next week, with some degree of redevelopment, with or without crossing parts of Texas first. Thus, we are opening a rare Lounge on this system at this time.

For interests in Texas and/or eastern, Gulf-facing Mexico, next week will likely see a threat of heavy to very heavy rains and potential flooding, regardless. More to come.

Invest 91E has become a Tropical Cyclone and the title has been updated accordingly

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Pamela: TX/GOM Potential cieldumortModerator Fri Oct 08 2021 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Pamela: TX/GOM Potential cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 11 2021 08:03 PM
. * * Re: 16E: TX/GOM Potential cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 10 2021 05:04 PM
. * * Re: 91E: TX/GOM Potential cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 10 2021 03:20 PM

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