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#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)

Archives 2020s >> 2021 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low
      Sun Dec 19 2021 02:31 AM

Models are about unanimously forecasting a pre-Christmas storm of a cool core/ trending symmetric-subtropical nature to develop in the Gulf by early to midweek, track ENE across Florida midweek, and into the southwestern Atlantic - Gulf Stream by the weekend.

This system as models currently forecast appears to be worthy of an upcoming Invest tag, and possibly a name. Given that the impacts would be felt over land (and Florida, specifically), and at a time of year when it may surprise many to learn of a strong coastal/subtropical storm approaching, we will open a lounge a bit quicker than usual on this anticipated system.

As of 12/19/21 06z, this potential cyclone has not yet started to develop. Additional information will be coming soon.

The image below (Credit: shows the ECMWF forecast maximum gusts associated with this low pressure system for Tuesday Dec 21 9AM CST.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low cieldumortModerator Sun Dec 19 2021 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low cieldumortModerator   Tue Dec 21 2021 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low Prospero   Sat Apr 09 2022 07:58 PM

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