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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low
      Tue Dec 21 2021 12:56 AM

Odds of enveloping an inner core that could have a more 'nameable' character look to be giving way. Some subtropical-ish transition could still possibly occur, but much less possible in the Gulf - perhaps better odds over the Gulf Stream.

Weather, on the other hand, will continue to go downhill across much of Florida overnight and into Tuesday, with improving conditions rapidly behind the stout non-tropical system.

From NWS Melbourne
Quote:

Issued 256 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021
Tuesday...The next 24 hours will prove to be the most active period
we have seen in awhile (at least so far in December). The deepening
surface low will reach the west FL coast by daybreak with upper
support in a 500 mb closed low digging south near MS/LA. The surface
low will shift over the peninsula through the day, with good
agreement in the center tracking along I-4 from dawn until dusk,
exiting offshore Daytona Beach by sunset. Uncertainty in the severe
threat is still present tomorrow, as latest model runs favor a dry
slot encompassing much of the area, with drier air wrapping around
the southern periphery of the low and the cold front extending south
towards the Keys. Focus for stronger activity still appears to begin
soon after sunrise and lasting through the late morning to early
afternoon, with deep-layer of dry air arriving by the afternoon
hours. Forecast soundings support this thought, but dry air arriving
in the mid levels early will offer the potential for strong to
severe wind gusts. DCAPE increases rapidly after 12Z up to 1200 J/kg
by late morning, suggesting wind gusts of 50-60 mph will be possible
prior to noon along with the potential for a tornado or two. Heavy
rainfall will remain a threat tomorrow morning, but most of the
precip will fall prior to sunrise, with higher totals occurring in
embedded thunderstorms. All signs point to the severe threat rapidly
diminishing through the afternoon with the mentioned arrival of dry
air on the south side of the low.




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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low cieldumortModerator Tue Dec 21 2021 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low cieldumortModerator   Tue Dec 21 2021 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low Prospero   Sat Apr 09 2022 07:58 PM

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